Yverdon Sport 3-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Yverdon Sport face Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.

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Full Analysis

Stade Municipal plays host to Yverdon Sport versus Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in Super League (matchday 33). Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Yverdon Sport have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Yverdon Sport at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Yverdon Sport against 0.90 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Yverdon Sport's last 10 home games and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's last 10 away games) — Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Yverdon Sport edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Dec 2023, ended Yverdon Sport 2–1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — a Yverdon Sport win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Yverdon Sport half-time and goal-timing data (last 32 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy half-time and goal-timing data (last 32 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Yverdon Sport 66% and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 66% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.68 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 1.058 / defence 1.234 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.979 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.137. Yverdon Sport's defence rating of 1.234 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's projected output up. Data: built from Yverdon Sport's last 32 games and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's last 32.

Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 45% | Draw 24% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 31%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.23 | Draw 4.21 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3.18. Yverdon Sport hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.68 / 1.37) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Yverdon Sport as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yverdon Sport if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Yverdon Sport's last 10 home games and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Yverdon Sport 60% (last 10 home games) | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 60% (last 10 away games).

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