Yverdon Sport 0-2 FC Zurich – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Yverdon Sport at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Zurich make the trip to Stade Municipal to face Yverdon Sport in Super League, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 July 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Yverdon Sport (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Yverdon Sport haven't played a Super League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Yverdon Sport's home record at Stade Municipal: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Yverdon Sport are significantly better at Stade Municipal than their overall form suggests.
FC Zurich's overall Super League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Zurich haven't played a Super League game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, FC Zurich have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Yverdon Sport lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 3–2 with Yverdon Sport winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Yverdon Sport — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Zurich — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Yverdon Sport 63% versus FC Zurich 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Yverdon Sport 66% | FC Zurich 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Yverdon Sport 1.61 xG and FC Zurich 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Yverdon Sport attack 1.079 / defence 1.022 | FC Zurich attack 0.981 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.107. Data: 33 Yverdon Sport games / 33 FC Zurich games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 49% | Draw 25% | FC Zurich 26%. Fair-value odds: Yverdon Sport 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | FC Zurich 3.85. Yverdon Sport hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Yverdon Sport as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Yverdon Sport if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Yverdon Sport 60% | FC Zurich 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Municipal • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Jul 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Yverdon Sport 49% | Draw 25% | FC Zurich 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Yverdon Sport 1.61 / FC Zurich 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Yverdon Sport attack 1.079 / def 1.022 | FC Zurich attack 0.981 / def 0.962 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Yverdon Sport (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Yverdon Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.11
FC Zurich xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich kick off?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 20 July 2024 at Stade Municipal.
What was the final score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich?
Yverdon Sport 0 - 2 FC Zurich.
Where is Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich being played?
The match is being played at Stade Municipal.
What competition is Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich part of?
Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich?
Our statistical model gives Yverdon Sport a 49% chance of winning, FC Zurich a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Yverdon Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich will score (BTTS).
Will Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich?
Record (3 meetings): Yverdon Sport 2W | Draws 0 | FC Zurich 1W.
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Yverdon Sport (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Yverdon Sport's attack rating (1.08) and FC Zurich's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.61 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Zurich's attack (0.98x) against Yverdon Sport's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Yverdon Sport Win
49%
2.04
25%
4.04
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Yverdon Sport xG
Total xG
2.72
1.11
FC Zurich xG
2.04
49%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
5%
19.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Yverdon Sport and 1.11 for FC Zurich, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Yverdon Sport have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 13W 8D 17L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. Yverdon Sport haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
FC Zurich's form line: 16W 12D 10L from 38 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W. FC Zurich haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Yverdon Sport against 1.58 for FC Zurich. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Yverdon Sport have posted 2.11 PPG from 19 outings (12W 4D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.24 PPG overall — Yverdon Sport are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Zurich have gone 7W 5D 7L from 19 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Yverdon Sport come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Yverdon Sport are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; FC Zurich are on 1.39 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Yverdon Sport have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Yverdon Sport
Pre-Season
FC Zurich
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich in coming into this match?
Yverdon Sport have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 games (1.24 PPG), while FC Zurich have gone 16W 12D 10L in their last 38 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Yverdon Sport at home or FC Zurich away?
Yverdon Sport's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Yverdon Sport at home: 2.11 PPG; FC Zurich away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Yverdon Sport or FC Zurich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Yverdon Sport have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, FC Zurich in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Yverdon Sport won 3-0 on 4 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Yverdon Sport have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Zurich — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Yverdon Sport
0
Draws
4
FC Zurich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich?
From 7 meetings on record, Yverdon Sport have won 3, FC Zurich have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2025, when Yverdon Sport 3-2 FC Zurich.
Who has won more matches between Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich?
FC Zurich have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Yverdon Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Yverdon Sport 63%, FC Zurich 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Yverdon Sport and 63% for FC Zurich. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Zurich in 32%; FC Zurich in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Yverdon Sport home games / FC Zurich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Yverdon Sport play FC Zurich?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Yverdon Sport's games and 47% of FC Zurich's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Yverdon Sport vs FC Zurich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Yverdon Sport's matches and 63% of FC Zurich's.
Do Yverdon Sport and FC Zurich tend to score early?
Yverdon Sport have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, FC Zurich in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Zurich cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Yverdon Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Zurich beat Yverdon Sport 0-2 at Stade Municipal, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Yverdon Sport 1.61 xG and FC Zurich 1.11 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Yverdon Sport fell 1.6 short of their projected output. FC Zurich outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Yverdon Sport attack 1.08 / defence 1.02 against FC Zurich attack 0.98 / defence 0.96, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Yverdon Sport 49% | Draw 25% | FC Zurich 26%, with Yverdon Sport to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual FC Zurich win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Yverdon Sport 66%, FC Zurich 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Yverdon Sport's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Zurich's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Yverdon Sport 1.24 PPG, FC Zurich 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Zurich win broke the near-deadlock. Yverdon Sport (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Zurich (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.