Servette FC 3-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Servette FC at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Servette FC vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de Genève plays host to Servette FC versus Lausanne in Super League (matchday 27). Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 13:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Servette FC have collected 2.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Servette FC's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across their last 10 home games (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Servette FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lausanne's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lausanne's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Servette FC. A 1.10 PPG lead over Lausanne (2.10 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Servette FC's last 10 home games and Lausanne's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Servette FC's games and 80% of Lausanne's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading
Servette FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Lausanne half-time and goal-timing data (last 26 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 85% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Servette FC 62% and Lausanne 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Servette FC 46% | Lausanne 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Servette FC surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Lausanne have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Lausanne surrender HT leads in 56% of cases while Servette FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 57% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Servette FC 2.31 xG and Lausanne 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Servette FC attack 1.253 / defence 0.844 | Lausanne attack 0.940 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.182. Servette FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.253 — their 2.31 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Lausanne's defence rating of 1.275 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Servette FC's projected output up. Data: built from Servette FC's last 62 games and Lausanne's last 26.
Result probabilities: Servette FC 68% | Draw 18% | Lausanne 14%. Fair-value odds: Servette FC 1.47 | Draw 5.51 | Lausanne 7.25. The model has a clear lean to Servette FC (68%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Servette FC as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Servette FC's last 10 home games and Lausanne's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Servette FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Lausanne 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Servette FC vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, matchday 27 | Venue: Stade de Genève • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 13:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Servette FC 68% | Draw 18% | Lausanne 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Servette FC 2.31 / Lausanne 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Servette FC attack 1.253 / def 0.844 | Lausanne attack 0.940 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Servette FC (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Servette FC xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Lausanne xG
55%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Servette FC vs Lausanne FAQs
What time does Servette FC vs Lausanne kick off?
Servette FC vs Lausanne kicked off at 13:15 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stade de Genève.
What was the final score in Servette FC vs Lausanne?
Servette FC 3 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is Servette FC vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Genève.
What competition is Servette FC vs Lausanne part of?
Servette FC vs Lausanne is a Super League fixture (matchday 27) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Servette FC vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives Servette FC a 68% chance of winning, Lausanne a 14% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Servette FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Servette FC vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Servette FC and Lausanne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Servette FC vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Servette FC's attack rating (1.25) and Lausanne's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 2.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lausanne's attack (0.94x) against Servette FC's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from Servette FC's last 62 games and Lausanne's last 26 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Servette FC Win
68%
1.47
18%
5.51
14%
7.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Servette FC xG
Total xG
3.24
0.94
Lausanne xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.51
18%
Draw
7.25
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
10%
10.03
Win to Nil
27%
3.75
1%
72.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Servette FC vs Lausanne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Servette FC vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Servette FC and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Servette FC and 0.94 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Servette FC vs Lausanne?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 26 outings, Servette FC have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 14W 8D 4L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Lausanne's form line: 7W 8D 11L from 26 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Servette FC are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lausanne.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Servette FC have posted 2.15 PPG from their last 13 home games (8W 4D 1L).
On the road, Lausanne have gone 2W 4D 7L from their last 13 away games — 0.77 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Servette FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Servette FC are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.35 scored and 1.54 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Servette FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Lausanne in 73%.
Last 26 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Servette FC
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
Servette FC (Home) vs Lausanne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Servette FC
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Servette FC vs Lausanne Form FAQs
What form are Servette FC and Lausanne in coming into this match?
Servette FC have gone 14W 8D 4L in their last 26 games (1.92 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 7W 8D 11L in their last 26 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Servette FC at home or Lausanne away?
Servette FC's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Servette FC at home: 2.15 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.77 PPG.
Have Servette FC or Lausanne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Servette FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lausanne in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to March 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Servette FC have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Servette FC have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lausanne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Servette FC
2
Draws
2
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Servette FC vs Lausanne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Servette FC and Lausanne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Servette FC have won 6, Lausanne have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Servette FC and Lausanne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Lausanne 0-1 Servette FC.
Who has won more matches between Servette FC and Lausanne?
Servette FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Servette FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for Servette FC, 85% for Lausanne — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Servette FC and 85% for Lausanne. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Servette FC home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Servette FC vs Lausanne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Servette FC and Lausanne matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Servette FC's games and 85% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Servette FC and Lausanne matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Servette FC's matches and 85% of Lausanne's.
Do Servette FC and Lausanne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 92% of Servette FC's recent matches and 69% of Lausanne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Servette FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lausanne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Servette FC beat Lausanne 3-1 at Stade de Genève, Regular Season - 27, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Servette FC 2.31 xG and Lausanne 0.94 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Servette FC attack 1.25 / defence 0.84 against Lausanne attack 0.94 / defence 1.27, drawn from 62/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Servette FC 68% | Draw 18% | Lausanne 14%, with Servette FC to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Servette FC 46%, Lausanne 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Servette FC's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lausanne's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Servette FC arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Servette FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm. Lausanne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.