Lausanne 1-0 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Lausanne at 59% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lausanne face Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.

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Analysis & Preview

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy travel to Stade de la Tuilière to take on Lausanne in Super League (matchday 15). The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 13:15 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Lausanne stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Lausanne's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 2L across their last 7 home games (1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have posted 2W 1D 4L from their last 7 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lausanne 1.20 PPG, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Lausanne have won 0, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2023, ended Lausanne 2–2 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Lausanne trading profile (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Stade Lausanne-Ouchy trading profile (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 86% and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Lausanne 86% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 79%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 2.28 xG and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.978 / defence 0.969 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy attack 0.910 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.814 / away 1.455. Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's defence rating of 1.285 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Lausanne's projected output up. Data: built from Lausanne's last 14 games and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's last 13.

Result probabilities: Lausanne 59% | Draw 22% | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 19%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 1.71 | Draw 4.57 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 5.14. The model has a clear lean to Lausanne (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (2.28 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Lausanne as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.56 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lausanne's last 7 home games and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's last 7 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lausanne 71% (last 7 home games) | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 57% (last 7 away games).

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