Lausanne 1-0 FC Zurich – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lausanne at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lausanne vs FC Zurich fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 32 as Lausanne welcome FC Zurich to Stade de la Tuilière. Kick-off is set for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, Lausanne have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lausanne's home record at Stade de la Tuilière: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Super League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Zurich stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Super League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
FC Zurich's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Lausanne) versus 1.50 (FC Zurich). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Lausanne have won 0, FC Zurich 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jan 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lausanne in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
FC Zurich in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lausanne 68% versus FC Zurich 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 61% | FC Zurich 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.49 xG and FC Zurich 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 1.035 / defence 1.118 | FC Zurich attack 0.997 / defence 1.002. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.155. Data: 31 Lausanne games / 67 FC Zurich games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lausanne 42% | Draw 25% | FC Zurich 33%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | FC Zurich 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lausanne are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Lausanne 50% | FC Zurich 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Zurich | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 42% | Draw 25% | FC Zurich 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Lausanne 1.49 / FC Zurich 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 1.035 / def 1.118 | FC Zurich attack 0.997 / def 1.002 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.29
FC Zurich xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lausanne vs FC Zurich kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Zurich kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Zurich?
Lausanne 1 - 0 FC Zurich.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Zurich being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Zurich part of?
Lausanne vs FC Zurich is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Zurich?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 42% chance of winning, FC Zurich a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Zurich?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lausanne and FC Zurich will score (BTTS).
Will Lausanne vs FC Zurich have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Zurich?
Record (2 meetings): Lausanne 0W | Draws 2 | FC Zurich 0W.
What form are Lausanne and FC Zurich in?
Lausanne (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. FC Zurich (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lausanne's attack rating (1.03) and FC Zurich's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Zurich's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
42%
2.38
25%
3.96
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.78
1.29
FC Zurich xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
12%
8.63
7%
13.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Zurich?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Zurich expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.29 for FC Zurich, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Zurich?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lausanne come into this having played 31 games, going 9W 10D 12L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, FC Zurich sit at 1.55 PPG from 31 outings (12W 12D 7L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 1.19 PPG, FC Zurich on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lausanne's home form reads 6W 5D 4L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Zurich have taken 1.27 points per game from 15 outings (5W 4D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; FC Zurich are on 1.42 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Zurich in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Current Season
FC Zurich
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lausanne and FC Zurich in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 9W 10D 12L in their last 31 games (1.19 PPG), while FC Zurich have gone 12W 12D 7L in their last 31 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Zurich away?
Lausanne's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.53 PPG; FC Zurich away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Lausanne or FC Zurich been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lausanne have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, FC Zurich in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lausanne and FC Zurich runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lausanne have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Lausanne won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lausanne's record when hosting FC Zurich specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lausanne
3
Draws
2
FC Zurich
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Zurich?
From 10 meetings on record, Lausanne have won 5, FC Zurich have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Zurich last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Lausanne 3-0 FC Zurich.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Zurich?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Zurich are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 60%, FC Zurich 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Lausanne) and 60% (FC Zurich).
On the defensive side: FC Zurich in 40%; FC Zurich in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Zurich away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lausanne play FC Zurich?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Lausanne's recent matches and 40% of FC Zurich's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lausanne vs FC Zurich usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Lausanne's recent games and 60% of FC Zurich's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and FC Zurich tend to score early?
Lausanne have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Zurich in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lausanne edge out FC Zurich 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat FC Zurich 1-0 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 32, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.49 xG and FC Zurich 1.29 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Zurich landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.03 / defence 1.12 against FC Zurich attack 1.00 / defence 1.00, drawn from 31/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 42% | Draw 25% | FC Zurich 33%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 61%, FC Zurich 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Zurich's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.19 PPG, FC Zurich 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. FC Zurich (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.