Lausanne 3-3 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lausanne at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lausanne host FC ST. Gallen at Stade de la Tuilière in Super League (matchday 30). Kick-off is Thursday 4 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Lausanne — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Lausanne have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Lausanne are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, FC ST. Gallen have recorded 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
FC ST. Gallen's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Lausanne have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Lausanne, 2 for FC ST. Gallen and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Jan 2024, ended Lausanne 0–1 FC ST. Gallen — a FC ST. Gallen win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lausanne trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
FC ST. Gallen trading profile (last 29 games, 14 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 69% and FC ST. Gallen 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 62% | FC ST. Gallen 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lausanne surrender their half-time lead 46% of the time, while FC ST. Gallen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that FC ST. Gallen surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Lausanne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.29 xG and FC ST. Gallen 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.932 / defence 0.958 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.775 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.125. FC ST. Gallen's attack rating of 0.775 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Lausanne's last 29 games and FC ST. Gallen's last 65.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 47% | Draw 29% | FC ST. Gallen 24%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.12 | Draw 3.49 | FC ST. Gallen 4.15. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lausanne at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lausanne 50% (last 10 home games) | FC ST. Gallen 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, matchday 30 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Thursday 4 April 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 47% | Draw 29% | FC ST. Gallen 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Lausanne 1.29 / FC ST. Gallen 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.932 / def 0.958 | FC ST. Gallen attack 0.775 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
0.84
FC ST. Gallen xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen FAQs
What time does Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Thursday 4 April 2024 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Lausanne 3 - 3 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen is a Super League fixture (matchday 30) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 47% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 24% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Lausanne's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lausanne's last 29 games and FC ST. Gallen's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
47%
2.12
29%
3.49
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.13
0.84
FC ST. Gallen xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
20%
4.88
7%
15.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.9 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Lausanne and 0.84 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lausanne come into this having played 29 games, going 9W 8D 12L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.45 PPG from 29 outings (12W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 1.21 PPG, FC ST. Gallen on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lausanne's home form reads 6W 4D 4L across their last 14 home games, a 1.57 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 0.71 points per game from their last 14 away games (2W 4D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC ST. Gallen's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.45 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Current Season
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
Lausanne (Home) vs FC ST. Gallen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lausanne
Current Season
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
❓ Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen Form FAQs
What form are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 9W 8D 12L in their last 29 games (1.21 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 12W 6D 11L in their last 29 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
Lausanne's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.57 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lausanne's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Lausanne
2
Draws
7
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lausanne have won 1, FC ST. Gallen have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: FC ST. Gallen 1-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 57%, FC ST. Gallen 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Lausanne and 21% for FC ST. Gallen.
On the defensive side: FC ST. Gallen in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lausanne vs FC ST. Gallen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Lausanne's recent matches and 43% of FC ST. Gallen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Lausanne's recent games and 21% of FC ST. Gallen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 79% of Lausanne's recent matches and 64% of FC ST. Gallen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 30, as Lausanne and FC ST. Gallen drew 3-3 in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.29 xG and FC ST. Gallen 0.84 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Lausanne beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC ST. Gallen outscored their 0.84 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.93 / defence 0.96 against FC ST. Gallen attack 0.78 / defence 0.97, drawn from 29/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 47% | Draw 29% | FC ST. Gallen 24%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 62%, FC ST. Gallen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.21 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lausanne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC ST. Gallen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.