Lausanne 1-0 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lausanne at 68% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lausanne vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lausanne and FC Sion meet at Stade de la Tuilière in Super League (matchday 15). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
Lausanne (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Lausanne at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
FC Sion's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Sion's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 4L across their last 6 road games (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Lausanne's 1.70 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of FC Sion's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head sample leans to FC Sion, who have 4 wins from 4 H2H matches compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Jul 2024, ended Lausanne 0–4 FC Sion — a FC Sion win.
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading
Lausanne half-time and goal-timing data (last 14 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Sion half-time and goal-timing data (last 14 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lausanne 43% versus FC Sion 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 57% | FC Sion 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 2.07 xG and FC Sion 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 1.184 / defence 0.879 | FC Sion attack 0.674 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.560 / away 1.239. FC Sion's attack rating of 0.674 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Lausanne's last 47 games and FC Sion's last 14.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 68% | Draw 20% | FC Sion 12%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 1.47 | Draw 4.99 | FC Sion 8.48. The model has a clear lean to Lausanne (68%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record in our data (4 wins to 0), but Lausanne carry stronger current form — do not let the head-to-head record alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Lausanne are the pick at 68% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lausanne 40% (last 10 home games) | FC Sion 50% (last 6 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, matchday 15 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Saturday 23 November 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 68% | Draw 20% | FC Sion 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Lausanne 2.07 / FC Sion 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 1.184 / def 0.879 | FC Sion attack 0.674 / def 1.121 | league avg home 1.560 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
0.73
FC Sion xG
46%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lausanne vs FC Sion FAQs
What time does Lausanne vs FC Sion kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Sion kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Sion?
Lausanne 1 - 0 FC Sion.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Sion part of?
Lausanne vs FC Sion is a Super League fixture (matchday 15) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 68% chance of winning, FC Sion a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Lausanne and FC Sion will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Lausanne vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Lausanne's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against FC Sion's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. Flip it around — FC Sion's attack (0.67x) against Lausanne's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from Lausanne's last 47 games and FC Sion's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
68%
1.47
20%
4.99
12%
8.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.80
0.73
FC Sion xG
1.47
68%
Home win
4.99
20%
Draw
8.48
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
13%
7.92
Win to Nil
33%
3.05
1%
67.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 9.2 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lausanne vs FC Sion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Lausanne and 0.73 for FC Sion, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Sion?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, Lausanne have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 6W 2D 6L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
FC Sion's form line: 4W 5D 5L from 14 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Lausanne against 1.21 for FC Sion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 6 home games (4W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.43 PPG overall — Lausanne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Sion have gone 1W 1D 4L from their last 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Sion's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lausanne are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 14 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
Lausanne (Home) vs FC Sion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lausanne
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Lausanne vs FC Sion Form FAQs
What form are Lausanne and FC Sion in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 6W 2D 6L in their last 14 games (1.43 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Sion away?
Lausanne's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Lausanne and FC Sion, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
FC Sion have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Sion won FC Sion 4-0 Lausanne on 27 Jul 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lausanne have gone 2W 1D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against FC Sion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lausanne
2
Draws
6
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Lausanne vs FC Sion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Sion?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lausanne have won 2, FC Sion have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Sion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: FC Sion 1-0 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Sion?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 50%, FC Sion 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Lausanne) and 50% (FC Sion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC Sion in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lausanne vs FC Sion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lausanne and FC Sion matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Lausanne's recent matches and 50% of FC Sion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lausanne and FC Sion matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Lausanne's matches and 50% of FC Sion's.
Do Lausanne and FC Sion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Lausanne's recent matches and 67% of FC Sion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lausanne edge out FC Sion 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne beat FC Sion 1-0 at Stade de la Tuilière, Regular Season - 15, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 2.07 xG and FC Sion 0.73 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Lausanne fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 1.18 / defence 0.88 against FC Sion attack 0.67 / defence 1.12, drawn from 47/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 68% | Draw 20% | FC Sion 12%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 57%, FC Sion 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Sion's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.43 PPG, FC Sion 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lausanne win broke the near-deadlock. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.