Lausanne 0-0 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lausanne at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lausanne face FC Basel 1893.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lausanne welcome FC Basel 1893 to Stade de la Tuilière in Super League (Relegation Round - 2). Kick-off is Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lausanne have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Lausanne have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, FC Basel 1893 stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
FC Basel 1893 away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lausanne 1.50 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Lausanne, 0 for FC Basel 1893 and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2024, ended Lausanne 2–1 FC Basel 1893 — a Lausanne win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lausanne in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
FC Basel 1893 in-play and half-time data (last 34 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lausanne 65% and FC Basel 1893 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lausanne 59% | FC Basel 1893 53%). Note also that FC Basel 1893 surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Lausanne recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lausanne 1.53 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lausanne attack 0.995 / defence 1.039 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.035 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.107. Data: built from Lausanne's last 33 games and FC Basel 1893's last 69.
Result probabilities: Lausanne 45% | Draw 25% | FC Basel 1893 30%. Fair-value odds: Lausanne 2.22 | Draw 3.96 | FC Basel 1893 3.38. Lausanne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lausanne are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lausanne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lausanne 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Basel 1893 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stade de la Tuilière • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024 at 20:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lausanne 45% | Draw 25% | FC Basel 1893 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Lausanne 1.53 / FC Basel 1893 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Lausanne attack 0.995 / def 1.039 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.035 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.107 • Poisson stance: Lausanne (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Lausanne xG
Expected Goals
1.19
FC Basel 1893 xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 FAQs
What time does Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 20:30 UK time on Friday 10 May 2024 at Stade de la Tuilière.
What was the final score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne 0 - 0 FC Basel 1893.
Where is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Tuilière.
What competition is Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 is a Super League fixture (Relegation Round - 2) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives Lausanne a 45% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lausanne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lausanne's attack rating (0.99) and FC Basel 1893's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus Lausanne's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lausanne's last 33 games and FC Basel 1893's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lausanne Win
45%
2.22
25%
3.96
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Lausanne xG
Total xG
2.72
1.19
FC Basel 1893 xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
14%
7.29
6%
15.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.0 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.2 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Lausanne and 1.19 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 34 outings, Lausanne have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 10W 10D 14L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
FC Basel 1893's form line: 11W 8D 15L from 34 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lausanne on 1.18 PPG, FC Basel 1893 on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lausanne have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 16 home games (7W 5D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Lausanne are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Basel 1893 have gone 5W 3D 8L from their last 16 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lausanne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lausanne are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.24 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lausanne have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lausanne
Current Season
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
Lausanne (Home) vs FC Basel 1893 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lausanne
Current Season
FC Basel 1893
Current Season
❓ Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 Form FAQs
What form are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
Lausanne have gone 10W 10D 14L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 11W 8D 15L in their last 34 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lausanne at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
Lausanne's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lausanne at home: 1.62 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won Lausanne 5-1 FC Basel 1893.
Lausanne's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Lausanne
4
Draws
2
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lausanne have won 4, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between Lausanne and FC Basel 1893?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lausanne 56%, FC Basel 1893 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lausanne) and 56% (FC Basel 1893).
On the defensive side: Lausanne keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lausanne home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lausanne vs FC Basel 1893 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Lausanne's games and 56% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lausanne's recent games and 56% of FC Basel 1893's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Lausanne's recent matches and 88% of FC Basel 1893's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lausanne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lausanne and FC Basel 1893 finished level at 0-0 at Stade de la Tuilière, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lausanne 1.53 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.19 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lausanne fell 1.5 short of their projected output. FC Basel 1893 landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lausanne attack 0.99 / defence 1.04 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 33/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lausanne 45% | Draw 25% | FC Basel 1893 30%, with Lausanne to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lausanne 59%, FC Basel 1893 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lausanne's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lausanne 1.18 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Lausanne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.