Grasshoppers 1-1 FC Thun – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grasshoppers at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Grasshoppers face FC Thun.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Grasshoppers welcome FC Thun to Stadion Letzigrund in Super League (Relegation Round). Kick-off is Sunday 26 May 2024 at 16:30 UK time.
Form Guide
Grasshoppers — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Grasshoppers's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Grasshoppers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grasshoppers 1.38 xG and FC Thun 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grasshoppers attack 0.826 / defence 0.958 | FC Thun attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.108. Data: built from Grasshoppers's last 69 games and FC Thun's last 0.
Result probabilities: Grasshoppers 48% | Draw 27% | FC Thun 25%. Fair-value odds: Grasshoppers 2.08 | Draw 3.64 | FC Thun 4.07. Grasshoppers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Grasshoppers at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grasshoppers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grasshoppers vs FC Thun | Competition: Super League, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion Letzigrund • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 16:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grasshoppers 48% | Draw 27% | FC Thun 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Grasshoppers 1.38 / FC Thun 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Grasshoppers attack 0.826 / def 0.958 | FC Thun attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Grasshoppers (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Grasshoppers xG
Expected Goals
0.90
FC Thun xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Grasshoppers vs FC Thun FAQs
What time does Grasshoppers vs FC Thun kick off?
Grasshoppers vs FC Thun kicked off at 16:30 UK time on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Stadion Letzigrund.
What was the final score in Grasshoppers vs FC Thun?
Grasshoppers 1 - 1 FC Thun.
Where is Grasshoppers vs FC Thun being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Letzigrund.
What competition is Grasshoppers vs FC Thun part of?
Grasshoppers vs FC Thun is a Super League fixture (Relegation Round) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win Grasshoppers vs FC Thun?
Our statistical model gives Grasshoppers a 48% chance of winning, FC Thun a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Grasshoppers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grasshoppers vs FC Thun?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Grasshoppers and FC Thun will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Grasshoppers vs FC Thun have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Grasshoppers's attack at 0.83x the league average against FC Thun's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Thun's attack versus Grasshoppers's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Grasshoppers's last 69 games and FC Thun's last 0 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grasshoppers Win
48%
2.08
27%
3.64
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Grasshoppers xG
Total xG
2.28
0.90
FC Thun xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
19%
5.14
6%
16.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.7 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Grasshoppers vs FC Thun Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Grasshoppers vs FC Thun?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Grasshoppers and FC Thun expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Grasshoppers and 0.90 for FC Thun, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Grasshoppers vs FC Thun?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grasshoppers
Pre-Season
FC Thun
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Grasshoppers (Home) vs FC Thun (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Grasshoppers
Pre-Season
FC Thun
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from May 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Mar 2026, when FC Thun won FC Thun 5-1 Grasshoppers.
Grasshoppers's record when hosting FC Thun specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Grasshoppers
2
Draws
2
FC Thun
Recent Meetings
❓ Grasshoppers vs FC Thun H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Grasshoppers and FC Thun?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Grasshoppers have won 2, FC Thun have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grasshoppers and FC Thun last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: FC Thun 0-1 Grasshoppers.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grasshoppers home games / FC Thun away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Grasshoppers and FC Thun share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Letzigrund, Relegation Round, as Grasshoppers and FC Thun drew 1-1 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grasshoppers 1.38 xG and FC Thun 0.90 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grasshoppers attack 0.83 / defence 0.96 against FC Thun attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 69/0 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Grasshoppers 48% | Draw 27% | FC Thun 25%, with Grasshoppers to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.