FC Winterthur 1-6 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Basel 1893 (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as FC Winterthur face FC Basel 1893.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC Winterthur welcome FC Basel 1893 to Stadion Schützenwiese in Super League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 26 October 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Winterthur have gone 2W 1D 7L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, FC Winterthur have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FC Basel 1893 — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, FC Basel 1893 have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. FC Basel 1893's 1.60 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of FC Winterthur's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
FC Basel 1893 have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 4 H2H matches we hold against 0 for FC Winterthur.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 16 Mar 2024, ended FC Winterthur 1–1 FC Basel 1893 — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. FC Basel 1893 have won 3 of 4 H2H matches, and at 4.5 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
FC Winterthur in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
FC Basel 1893 in-play and half-time data (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Winterthur 69% versus FC Basel 1893 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Winterthur 65% | FC Basel 1893 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Winterthur 0.99 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Winterthur attack 0.759 / defence 1.048 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.291 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.116. FC Winterthur's attack rating of 0.759 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. FC Basel 1893 have an above-average attack rating of 1.291, which lifts their away xG to 1.51. Data: built from FC Winterthur's last 43 games and FC Basel 1893's last 43.
Result probabilities: FC Winterthur 25% | Draw 26% | FC Basel 1893 49%. Fair-value odds: FC Winterthur 4.05 | Draw 3.86 | FC Basel 1893 2.02. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Winterthur 50% (last 10 home games) | FC Basel 1893 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, matchday 11 | Venue: Stadion Schützenwiese • Kick-off: Saturday 26 October 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Winterthur 25% | Draw 26% | FC Basel 1893 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG FC Winterthur 0.99 / FC Basel 1893 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: FC Winterthur attack 0.759 / def 1.048 | FC Basel 1893 attack 1.291 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
FC Winterthur xG
Expected Goals
1.51
FC Basel 1893 xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 FAQs
What time does FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What was the final score in FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893?
FC Winterthur 1 - 6 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Schützenwiese.
What competition is FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 is a Super League fixture (matchday 11) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC Winterthur a 25% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 49% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893 will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Winterthur's attack at 0.76x the league average against FC Basel 1893's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus FC Winterthur's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Winterthur's last 43 games and FC Basel 1893's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
25%
4.05
26%
3.86
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
FC Winterthur xG
Total xG
2.50
1.51
FC Basel 1893 xG
4.05
25%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
5%
18.35
18%
5.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for FC Winterthur and 1.51 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Winterthur come into this having played 48 games, going 15W 11D 22L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 1.35 PPG from 48 outings (18W 11D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Winterthur on 1.17 PPG, FC Basel 1893 on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
FC Winterthur's home form reads 11W 5D 8L across their last 24 home games, a 1.58 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — FC Winterthur are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 1.21 points per game from their last 24 away games (8W 5D 11L).
Goals in Recent Form
FC Winterthur are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 1.31 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Winterthur have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Winterthur
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
FC Winterthur (Home) vs FC Basel 1893 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Winterthur
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
❓ FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 Form FAQs
What form are FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC Winterthur have gone 15W 11D 22L in their last 48 games (1.17 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 18W 11D 19L in their last 48 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Winterthur at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC Winterthur's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Winterthur at home: 1.58 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 1.21 PPG.
Have FC Winterthur or FC Basel 1893 been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Winterthur have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, FC Basel 1893 in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2023. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: FC Basel 1893 have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2024, when FC Basel 1893 won FC Winterthur 1-6 FC Basel 1893.
FC Winterthur's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 0W 0D 6L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FC Winterthur
1
Draws
9
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Winterthur have won 0, FC Basel 1893 have won 9, and 1 has been drawn.
When did FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: FC Winterthur 0-2 FC Basel 1893.
Who has won more matches between FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Winterthur see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Winterthur 67%, FC Basel 1893 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (FC Winterthur) and 54% (FC Basel 1893). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Winterthur home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Winterthur vs FC Basel 1893 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893 matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Winterthur's games and 50% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of FC Winterthur's matches and 54% of FC Basel 1893's.
Do FC Winterthur and FC Basel 1893 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of FC Winterthur's recent matches and 79% of FC Basel 1893's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC Basel 1893 run riot with a 1-6 hammering of FC Winterthur.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC Winterthur 1-6 at Stadion Schützenwiese, Regular Season - 11, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Winterthur 0.99 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.51 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 outscored their 1.51 projection by 4.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Winterthur attack 0.76 / defence 1.05 against FC Basel 1893 attack 1.29 / defence 0.84, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Winterthur 25% | Draw 26% | FC Basel 1893 49%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Winterthur 65%, FC Basel 1893 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Winterthur's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Winterthur 1.17 PPG, FC Basel 1893 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Basel 1893 win broke the near-deadlock. FC Winterthur (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.