FC Sion 1-1 FC ST. Gallen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as FC Sion take on FC ST. Gallen.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 31 as FC Sion welcome FC ST. Gallen to Stade de Tourbillon. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Sion have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Sion's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Stade de Tourbillon this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Tourbillon. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — FC Sion are significantly better at Stade de Tourbillon than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC ST. Gallen stand at 4W 6D 0L from 10 Super League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
FC ST. Gallen away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (FC Sion) versus 1.80 (FC ST. Gallen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, FC ST. Gallen have the better historical record — 4 wins from 8 previous contests against 1 for FC Sion.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2025, ended 1–3 with FC ST. Gallen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC ST. Gallen have won 4 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
FC ST. Gallen in-play tendencies (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 59% and FC ST. Gallen 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 46% | FC ST. Gallen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.15 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.834 / defence 0.651 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.214 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.734 / away 1.468. FC ST. Gallen's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. FC ST. Gallen have an above-average attack strength of 1.214 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. FC Sion's defence rating of 0.651 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 FC Sion games / 63 FC ST. Gallen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 32% | Draw 35% | FC ST. Gallen 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | FC ST. Gallen 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 50% | FC ST. Gallen 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 32% | Draw 35% | FC ST. Gallen 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG FC Sion 1.15 / FC ST. Gallen 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.834 / def 0.651 | FC ST. Gallen attack 1.214 / def 0.797 | league avg home 1.734 / away 1.468 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.16
FC ST. Gallen xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kick off?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
FC Sion 1 - 1 FC ST. Gallen.
Where is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen part of?
FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 32% chance of winning, FC ST. Gallen a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
Record (8 meetings): FC Sion 1W | Draws 3 | FC ST. Gallen 4W.
What form are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen in?
FC Sion (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. FC ST. Gallen (all comps): 4W-6D-0L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against FC ST. Gallen's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, FC ST. Gallen's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.08
35%
2.89
33%
3.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.31
1.16
FC ST. Gallen xG
3.08
32%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
3.04
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
10%
9.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.5 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.16 for FC ST. Gallen, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion come into this having played 68 games, going 22W 23D 23L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-W.
On the other side, FC ST. Gallen sit at 1.57 PPG from 68 outings (29W 20D 19L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Sion on 1.31 PPG, FC ST. Gallen on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Sion's home form reads 15W 13D 6L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, FC ST. Gallen have taken 1.32 points per game from 34 outings (11W 12D 11L).
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; FC ST. Gallen are on 1.63 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC ST. Gallen in 66%.
Last 68 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Current Season
FC ST. Gallen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 22W 23D 23L in their last 68 games (1.31 PPG), while FC ST. Gallen have gone 29W 20D 19L in their last 68 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC ST. Gallen away?
FC Sion's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.71 PPG; FC ST. Gallen away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when FC ST. Gallen won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting FC ST. Gallen specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Sion
4
Draws
4
FC ST. Gallen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 2, FC ST. Gallen have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when FC ST. Gallen 0-3 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen?
FC ST. Gallen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC ST. Gallen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 56%, FC ST. Gallen 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (FC Sion) and 50% (FC ST. Gallen).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC ST. Gallen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC ST. Gallen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of FC Sion's games and 71% of FC ST. Gallen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs FC ST. Gallen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of FC Sion's recent games and 50% of FC ST. Gallen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, FC ST. Gallen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Sion and FC ST. Gallen finished level at 1-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 31, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.15 xG and FC ST. Gallen 1.16 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.83 / defence 0.65 against FC ST. Gallen attack 1.21 / defence 0.80, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 32% | Draw 35% | FC ST. Gallen 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 46%, FC ST. Gallen 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
FC ST. Gallen's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Sion 1.31 PPG, FC ST. Gallen 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.