FC Sion 0-1 FC Basel 1893 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Sion host FC Basel 1893 at Stade de Tourbillon in Super League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 17 October 2021 at 15:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Sion — All Games: 2W 3D 4L from 9 Super League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 1.33 goals per game and conceding 2.44 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.44 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 89% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de Tourbillon, FC Sion have gone 2W 1D 1L this season (4 games, 1.75 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.75 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — FC Sion are significantly better at Stade de Tourbillon than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League games this season, FC Basel 1893 have recorded 5W 4D 0L from 9 outings — 2.11 PPG. Last five: D D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.56 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 78% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Basel 1893 away from home this season: 2W 2D 0L from 4 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. FC Basel 1893's 2.11 PPG return is 1.11 points per game ahead of FC Sion's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
FC Sion in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Sion 89% and FC Basel 1893 78% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Sion 56% | FC Basel 1893 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Sion 1.26 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Sion attack 0.931 / defence 1.014 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.874 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.583. Data: 9 FC Sion games / 9 FC Basel 1893 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Sion 30% | Draw 33% | FC Basel 1893 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Sion 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | FC Basel 1893 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: FC Sion 75% | FC Basel 1893 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade de Tourbillon • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Oct 2021, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Sion 30% | Draw 33% | FC Basel 1893 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 58% | xG FC Sion 1.26 / FC Basel 1893 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: FC Sion attack 0.931 / def 1.014 | FC Basel 1893 attack 0.874 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.583 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
FC Sion xG
Expected Goals
1.40
FC Basel 1893 xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 kick off?
FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 17 October 2021 at Stade de Tourbillon.
What was the final score in FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
FC Sion 0 - 1 FC Basel 1893.
Where is FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 being played?
The match is being played at Stade de Tourbillon.
What competition is FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 part of?
FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our statistical model gives FC Sion a 30% chance of winning, FC Basel 1893 a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 will score (BTTS).
Will FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 in?
FC Sion (all comps): 2W-3D-4L in 9 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 2.44 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 5W-4D-0L in 9 | 2.11 PPG | GF 2.56 / GA 0.89 | L5 D-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC Sion's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against FC Basel 1893's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, FC Basel 1893's attack versus FC Sion's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
30%
3.33
33%
3.00
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
FC Sion xG
Total xG
2.66
1.40
FC Basel 1893 xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
28%
3.52
Win to Nil
7%
13.56
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.8 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for FC Sion and 1.40 for FC Basel 1893, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Sion come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 3D 4L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-L. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Basel 1893 sit at 2.11 PPG from 9 outings (5W 4D 0L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Basel 1893 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of FC Sion — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Sion's home form reads 2W 1D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — FC Sion are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Basel 1893 have taken 2.00 points per game from 4 outings (2W 2D 0L).
The Goals Picture
FC Sion are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.44 conceded per game recently; FC Basel 1893 are on 2.56 scored and 0.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Sion have seen both teams score in 89% of their recent games; FC Basel 1893 in 78%.
Last 9 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Sion
Blended
FC Basel 1893
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 in coming into this match?
FC Sion have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while FC Basel 1893 have gone 5W 4D 0L in their last 9 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Sion at home or FC Basel 1893 away?
FC Basel 1893's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Sion at home: 1.75 PPG; FC Basel 1893 away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Sion go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Jan 2025, when FC Basel 1893 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Sion's record when hosting FC Basel 1893 specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Sion
3
Draws
5
FC Basel 1893
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Sion have won 2, FC Basel 1893 have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-2 FC Sion.
Who has won more matches between FC Sion and FC Basel 1893?
FC Basel 1893 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Sion 75%, FC Basel 1893 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Sion) and 25% (FC Basel 1893).
On the defensive side: FC Basel 1893 in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Sion home games / FC Basel 1893 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Sion play FC Basel 1893?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of FC Sion's games and 50% of FC Basel 1893's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Sion vs FC Basel 1893 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Sion's recent games and 25% of FC Basel 1893's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Sion and FC Basel 1893 tend to score early?
FC Sion have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Basel 1893 in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Basel 1893 edge out FC Sion 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 beat FC Sion 0-1 at Stade de Tourbillon, Regular Season - 10, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Sion 1.26 xG and FC Basel 1893 1.40 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Sion fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Sion attack 0.93 / defence 1.01 against FC Basel 1893 attack 0.87 / defence 0.91, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Sion 30% | Draw 33% | FC Basel 1893 37%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Sion 56%, FC Basel 1893 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Sion's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 89% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 78% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.