FC Luzern 1-0 FC Sion – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Sion at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Luzern vs FC Sion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
swissporarena plays host to FC Luzern versus FC Sion in Super League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 13 February 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
FC Luzern (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Luzern, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Luzern at swissporarena this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Sion have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FC Sion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Sion away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Sion are 1.10 PPG clear of FC Luzern in recent Super League fixtures (1.60 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Luzern have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Sion in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
FC Luzern goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Sion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Luzern 75% and FC Sion 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Luzern 50% | FC Sion 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Luzern 1.35 xG and FC Sion 1.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Luzern attack 0.666 / defence 1.321 | FC Sion attack 0.915 / defence 1.574. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.638. FC Luzern's attack strength of 0.666 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Sion bring a strong defensive rating of 1.574 — this is suppressing FC Luzern's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 FC Luzern games / 20 FC Sion games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Luzern 26% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 52%. Fair-value odds: FC Luzern 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | FC Sion 1.92. FC Sion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.98) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Sion are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Sion if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.33 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: FC Luzern 60% | FC Sion 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Luzern vs FC Sion | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: swissporarena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Luzern 26% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 64% | xG FC Luzern 1.35 / FC Sion 1.98 • Poisson strength factors: FC Luzern attack 0.666 / def 1.321 | FC Sion attack 0.915 / def 1.574 | league avg home 1.284 / away 1.638 • Poisson stance: FC Sion (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
FC Luzern xG
Expected Goals
1.98
FC Sion xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Luzern vs FC Sion kick off?
FC Luzern vs FC Sion kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at swissporarena.
What was the final score in FC Luzern vs FC Sion?
FC Luzern 1 - 0 FC Sion.
Where is FC Luzern vs FC Sion being played?
The match is being played at swissporarena.
What competition is FC Luzern vs FC Sion part of?
FC Luzern vs FC Sion is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Luzern vs FC Sion?
Our statistical model gives FC Luzern a 26% chance of winning, FC Sion a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Sion the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Luzern vs FC Sion?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC Luzern and FC Sion will score (BTTS).
Will FC Luzern vs FC Sion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Luzern and FC Sion?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Luzern and FC Sion in?
FC Luzern (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. FC Sion (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Luzern's attack at 0.67x the league average against FC Sion's defence at 1.57x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Sion's attack (0.92x) against FC Luzern's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.98.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Sion Win
26%
3.85
22%
4.59
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
FC Luzern xG
Total xG
3.33
1.98
FC Sion xG
3.85
26%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.76
Clean Sheet
14%
7.25
26%
3.84
Win to Nil
4%
27.91
14%
7.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Luzern vs FC Sion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are FC Luzern and FC Sion expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for FC Luzern and 1.98 for FC Sion, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Luzern vs FC Sion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Luzern come into this having played 20 games, going 1W 8D 11L for 0.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for FC Luzern is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Sion sit at 1.25 PPG from 20 outings (7W 4D 9L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for FC Sion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Sion carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of FC Luzern — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC Luzern's home form reads 1W 2D 7L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Sion have taken 0.90 points per game from 10 outings (2W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Sion come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Luzern are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; FC Sion are on 1.45 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Luzern have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; FC Sion in 65%.
Last 20 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Luzern
Blended
FC Sion
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Luzern and FC Sion in coming into this match?
FC Luzern have gone 1W 8D 11L in their last 20 games (0.55 PPG), while FC Sion have gone 7W 4D 9L in their last 20 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Luzern at home or FC Sion away?
FC Sion's away record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Luzern at home: 0.50 PPG; FC Sion away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Sion won 3-0 on 2 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Luzern have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against FC Sion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Luzern
3
Draws
4
FC Sion
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Luzern and FC Sion?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Luzern have won 3, FC Sion have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Luzern and FC Sion last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when FC Sion 3-0 FC Luzern.
Who has won more matches between FC Luzern and FC Sion?
FC Sion have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Luzern are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Sion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for FC Luzern, 80% for FC Sion — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Luzern) and 60% (FC Sion). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Luzern have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Luzern home games / FC Sion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Luzern play FC Sion?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC Luzern's games and 80% of FC Sion's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Luzern vs FC Sion usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Luzern's matches and 60% of FC Sion's.
Do FC Luzern and FC Sion tend to score early?
FC Luzern have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, FC Sion in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Luzern defy the odds to beat FC Sion 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Luzern beat FC Sion 1-0 at swissporarena, Regular Season - 21, in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Luzern 1.35 xG and FC Sion 1.98 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Sion landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Luzern attack 0.67 / defence 1.32 against FC Sion attack 0.92 / defence 1.57, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Luzern 26% | Draw 22% | FC Sion 52%, with FC Sion to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual FC Luzern win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Luzern 50%, FC Sion 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Luzern's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Sion's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Sion arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.55. Form was overturned, with FC Luzern winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Luzern (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sion (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.