FC Basel 1893 1-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Basel 1893 at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League clash, Regular Season - 16 as FC Basel 1893 welcome Lausanne to St. Jakob-Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 December 2021 at 13:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League games this season, FC Basel 1893 have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 1L across 7 games at St. Jakob-Park this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.57 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lausanne — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Super League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lausanne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lausanne's away record: 1W 2D 4L from 7 road trips in Super League this season (0.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Basel 1893 are in the better shape of the two on current Super League data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 71% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Lausanne in-play tendencies (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 64% and Lausanne 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 43% | Lausanne 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.64 xG and Lausanne 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.066 / defence 0.930 | Lausanne attack 0.717 / defence 1.167. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.499. Data: 14 FC Basel 1893 games / 15 Lausanne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 52% | Draw 25% | Lausanne 23%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Lausanne 4.35. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 71% | Lausanne 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 13:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 52% | Draw 25% | Lausanne 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.64 / Lausanne 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.066 / def 0.930 | Lausanne attack 0.717 / def 1.167 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.499 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Lausanne xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kicked off at 13:15 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
FC Basel 1893 1 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 52% chance of winning, Lausanne a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Lausanne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
52%
1.91
25%
4.06
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
2.64
1.00
Lausanne xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
37%
2.72
19%
5.14
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
4%
22.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.00 for Lausanne, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893's recent record stands at 8W 5D 1L from 14 games, a 2.07 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for FC Basel 1893 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 2W 5D 7L across 14 games — 0.79 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Lausanne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Basel 1893 by 1.28 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Lausanne heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Basel 1893 have managed 4W 2D 1L from 7 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 1W 2D 4L across 7 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.07 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Lausanne in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 8W 5D 1L in their last 14 games (2.07 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 2W 5D 7L in their last 14 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or Lausanne away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 2.00 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Basel 1893
4
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, Lausanne have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Basel 1893 at 71%, Lausanne at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC Basel 1893) and 43% (Lausanne).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play Lausanne?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of FC Basel 1893's games and 71% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of FC Basel 1893's recent games and 43% of Lausanne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lausanne in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne finished level at 1-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.64 xG and Lausanne 1.00 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.07 / defence 0.93 against Lausanne attack 0.72 / defence 1.17, drawn from 14/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 52% | Draw 25% | Lausanne 23%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 43%, Lausanne 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Basel 1893 arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.57 scoring average — below par going forward. Lausanne (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.