FC Basel 1893 1-1 Lausanne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Basel 1893 at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as FC Basel 1893 face Lausanne.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
FC Basel 1893 welcome Lausanne to St. Jakob-Park in Super League (matchday 24). Kick-off is Sunday 16 February 2025 at 15:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, FC Basel 1893 have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
FC Basel 1893's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 home games (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Lausanne — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lausanne's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Basel 1893 1.80 PPG, Lausanne 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, FC Basel 1893 have won 0, Lausanne 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2024, ended FC Basel 1893 1–1 Lausanne — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FC Basel 1893 in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Lausanne in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Basel 1893 56% versus Lausanne 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 52% | Lausanne 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.93 xG and Lausanne 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.146 / defence 0.890 | Lausanne attack 1.213 / defence 1.015. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.200. Lausanne have an above-average attack rating of 1.213, which lifts their away xG to 1.29. Data: built from FC Basel 1893's last 56 games and Lausanne's last 56.
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 25%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 1.95 | Draw 4.13 | Lausanne 4.07. FC Basel 1893 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.93 / 1.29) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Basel 1893 at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Basel 1893 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC Basel 1893's last 10 home games and Lausanne's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Basel 1893 50% (last 10 home games) | Lausanne 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne | Competition: Super League, matchday 24 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 16 February 2025 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG FC Basel 1893 1.93 / Lausanne 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 1.146 / def 0.890 | Lausanne attack 1.213 / def 1.015 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: FC Basel 1893 (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Lausanne xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne FAQs
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Sunday 16 February 2025 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
FC Basel 1893 1 - 1 Lausanne.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne is a Super League fixture (matchday 24) (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 51% chance of winning, Lausanne a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Basel 1893 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Basel 1893's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Lausanne's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. The same calculation in reverse, Lausanne's attack versus FC Basel 1893's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from FC Basel 1893's last 56 games and Lausanne's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Basel 1893 Win
51%
1.95
24%
4.13
25%
4.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
3.23
1.29
Lausanne xG
1.95
51%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
4.07
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
15%
6.90
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
4%
28.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.29 for Lausanne, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Basel 1893's recent record stands at 25W 14D 22L from 61 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Lausanne, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 23L across 61 games — 1.31 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Basel 1893 on 1.46 PPG, Lausanne on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Basel 1893 have managed 14W 7D 9L from their last 30 home games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lausanne's away record stands at 6W 9D 15L across their last 30 away games, a 0.90 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lausanne's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Lausanne are on 1.44 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
FC Basel 1893 (Home) vs Lausanne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC Basel 1893
Blended
Lausanne
Blended
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne Form FAQs
What form are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 25W 14D 22L in their last 61 games (1.46 PPG), while Lausanne have gone 21W 17D 23L in their last 61 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or Lausanne away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.63 PPG; Lausanne away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2024. All of them came in Super League. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 26 Oct 2025, when Lausanne won Lausanne 5-1 FC Basel 1893.
FC Basel 1893's record when hosting Lausanne specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Basel 1893
4
Draws
4
Lausanne
Recent Meetings
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, FC Basel 1893 have won 2, Lausanne have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: FC Basel 1893 0-1 Lausanne.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne?
Lausanne have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Lausanne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Basel 1893 53%, Lausanne 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FC Basel 1893) and 67% (Lausanne). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lausanne in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / Lausanne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC Basel 1893 vs Lausanne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC Basel 1893's games and 63% of Lausanne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 67% of Lausanne's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of FC Basel 1893's recent matches and 77% of Lausanne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Basel 1893 and Lausanne finished level at 1-1 at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 24, in the Super League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.93 xG and Lausanne 1.29 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.15 / defence 0.89 against Lausanne attack 1.21 / defence 1.01, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 51% | Draw 24% | Lausanne 25%, with FC Basel 1893 to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 52%, Lausanne 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Lausanne's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.46 PPG, Lausanne 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.