FC Basel 1893 0-0 BSC Young Boys – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BSC Young Boys at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
BSC Young Boys make the trip to St. Jakob-Park to face FC Basel 1893 in Super League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 7 August 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form
FC Basel 1893 (all games): 2W 7D 1L across 10 Super League fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. FC Basel 1893 have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Basel 1893 have posted 4W 5D 1L at St. Jakob-Park — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
BSC Young Boys's overall Super League record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. BSC Young Boys have played only a handful of Super League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
BSC Young Boys's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League this season (1.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
BSC Young Boys arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Basel 1893 have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, BSC Young Boys in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
FC Basel 1893 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BSC Young Boys goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Basel 1893 63% and BSC Young Boys 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Basel 1893 50% | BSC Young Boys 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Basel 1893 1.48 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.999 / defence 0.949 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.251 / defence 0.966. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.314. BSC Young Boys have an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 FC Basel 1893 games / 39 BSC Young Boys games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 33% | Draw 30% | BSC Young Boys 37%. Fair-value odds: FC Basel 1893 3.03 | Draw 3.33 | BSC Young Boys 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.56) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BSC Young Boys as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on BSC Young Boys if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: FC Basel 1893 60% | BSC Young Boys 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys | Competition: Super League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: St. Jakob-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Basel 1893 33% | Draw 30% | BSC Young Boys 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 64% | xG FC Basel 1893 1.48 / BSC Young Boys 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: FC Basel 1893 attack 0.999 / def 0.949 | BSC Young Boys attack 1.251 / def 0.966 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: BSC Young Boys (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
FC Basel 1893 xG
Expected Goals
1.56
BSC Young Boys xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys kick off?
FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at St. Jakob-Park.
What was the final score in FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys?
FC Basel 1893 0 - 0 BSC Young Boys.
Where is FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys being played?
The match is being played at St. Jakob-Park.
What competition is FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys part of?
FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League (Switzerland).
Who is favourite to win FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys?
Our statistical model gives FC Basel 1893 a 33% chance of winning, BSC Young Boys a 37% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making BSC Young Boys the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both FC Basel 1893 and BSC Young Boys will score (BTTS).
Will FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and BSC Young Boys?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Basel 1893 and BSC Young Boys in?
FC Basel 1893 (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-D. BSC Young Boys (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Basel 1893's attack at 1.00x the league average against BSC Young Boys's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — BSC Young Boys's attack (1.25x) against FC Basel 1893's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
The sample (38/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BSC Young Boys Win
33%
3.03
30%
3.29
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
FC Basel 1893 xG
Total xG
3.04
1.56
BSC Young Boys xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
23%
4.38
Win to Nil
7%
14.44
8%
11.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.8 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are FC Basel 1893 and BSC Young Boys expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for FC Basel 1893 and 1.56 for BSC Young Boys, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Basel 1893 come into this having played 38 games, going 15W 19D 4L for 1.68 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-D. It's still early in the season for FC Basel 1893, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, BSC Young Boys sit at 1.68 PPG from 38 outings (17W 13D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for BSC Young Boys, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for FC Basel 1893 against 1.68 for BSC Young Boys. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
FC Basel 1893's home form reads 7W 9D 2L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, BSC Young Boys have taken 1.22 points per game from 18 outings (5W 7D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of BSC Young Boys's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Basel 1893 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FC Basel 1893 are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; BSC Young Boys are on 2.21 scored and 1.26 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Basel 1893 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; BSC Young Boys in 71%.
Last 38 Results — Super League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Basel 1893
Early Season
BSC Young Boys
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Basel 1893 and BSC Young Boys in coming into this match?
FC Basel 1893 have gone 15W 19D 4L in their last 38 games (1.68 PPG), while BSC Young Boys have gone 17W 13D 8L in their last 38 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Basel 1893 at home or BSC Young Boys away?
FC Basel 1893's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Basel 1893 at home: 1.67 PPG; BSC Young Boys away: 1.22 PPG.
Have FC Basel 1893 or BSC Young Boys been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Basel 1893 have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, BSC Young Boys in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BSC Young Boys won 5-1 on 10 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Basel 1893 have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against BSC Young Boys — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Basel 1893
2
Draws
5
BSC Young Boys
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Basel 1893 and BSC Young Boys?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Basel 1893 have won 3, BSC Young Boys have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Basel 1893 and BSC Young Boys last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when BSC Young Boys 3-0 FC Basel 1893.
Who has won more matches between FC Basel 1893 and BSC Young Boys?
BSC Young Boys have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Basel 1893 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
BSC Young Boys are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for FC Basel 1893, 67% for BSC Young Boys — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC Basel 1893 and 72% for BSC Young Boys. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Basel 1893 home games / BSC Young Boys away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Basel 1893 play BSC Young Boys?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Basel 1893's games and 67% of BSC Young Boys's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Basel 1893 vs BSC Young Boys usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Basel 1893's matches and 72% of BSC Young Boys's.
Do FC Basel 1893 and BSC Young Boys tend to score early?
FC Basel 1893 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, BSC Young Boys in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Basel 1893's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at St. Jakob-Park, Regular Season - 4, as FC Basel 1893 and BSC Young Boys drew 0-0 in the Super League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Basel 1893 1.48 xG and BSC Young Boys 1.56 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Basel 1893 fell 1.5 short of their projected output. BSC Young Boys landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Basel 1893 attack 1.00 / defence 0.95 against BSC Young Boys attack 1.25 / defence 0.97, drawn from 38/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Basel 1893 33% | Draw 30% | BSC Young Boys 37%, with BSC Young Boys to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Basel 1893 50%, BSC Young Boys 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Basel 1893's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
BSC Young Boys's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Basel 1893 1.68 PPG, BSC Young Boys 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. FC Basel 1893 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. BSC Young Boys (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.