Vasteras SK FK 0-1 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna meet at Iver Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Monday 8 August 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vasteras SK FK's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vasteras SK FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 2W 6D 2L at Iver Arena — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IF Brommapojkarna have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record: 1W 3D 4L from 8 road trips in Superettan this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.38 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, IF Brommapojkarna are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Vasteras SK FK register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, IF Brommapojkarna in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Vasteras SK FK, 1 for IF Brommapojkarna and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with IF Brommapojkarna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Vasteras SK FK half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 59% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 35% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna half-time and goal-timing data (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vasteras SK FK 71% and IF Brommapojkarna 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vasteras SK FK 71% | IF Brommapojkarna 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasteras SK FK 2.02 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.127 / defence 1.190 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.919 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.456 / away 1.296. IF Brommapojkarna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Vasteras SK FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Vasteras SK FK games / 17 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 51% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 26%. Fair-value odds: Vasteras SK FK 1.96 | Draw 4.35 | IF Brommapojkarna 3.85. Vasteras SK FK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Vasteras SK FK are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IF Brommapojkarna (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.43 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vasteras SK FK 80% | IF Brommapojkarna 75% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Iver Arena • Kick-off: Monday 8 Aug 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasteras SK FK 51% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 66% | xG Vasteras SK FK 2.02 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Vasteras SK FK attack 1.127 / def 1.190 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.919 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.456 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Vasteras SK FK xG
Expected Goals
1.42
IF Brommapojkarna xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 8 August 2022 at Iver Arena.
What was the final score in Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Vasteras SK FK 0 - 1 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Iver Arena.
What competition is Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Vasteras SK FK a 51% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 26% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (1 meetings): Vasteras SK FK 0W | Draws 0 | IF Brommapojkarna 1W.
What form are Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Vasteras SK FK's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. Flip it around — IF Brommapojkarna's attack (0.92x) against Vasteras SK FK's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
51%
1.97
23%
4.34
26%
3.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
6.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Vasteras SK FK xG
Total xG
3.43
1.42
IF Brommapojkarna xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.81
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.98
Clean Sheet
24%
4.12
13%
7.52
Win to Nil
12%
8.13
3%
28.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.3 | 6.6 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Vasteras SK FK and 1.42 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Vasteras SK FK come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 6D 7L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Vasteras SK FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IF Brommapojkarna sit at 1.71 PPG from 17 outings (8W 5D 4L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Brommapojkarna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of Vasteras SK FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Vasteras SK FK's home form reads 2W 4D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Brommapojkarna have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IF Brommapojkarna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Vasteras SK FK are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 2.24 scored and 1.59 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasteras SK FK have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; IF Brommapojkarna in 82%.
Last 17 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasteras SK FK
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Vasteras SK FK have gone 4W 6D 7L in their last 17 games (1.06 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 8W 5D 4L in their last 17 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasteras SK FK at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
Vasteras SK FK's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasteras SK FK at home: 1.25 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vasteras SK FK have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against IF Brommapojkarna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Vasteras SK FK
1
Draws
3
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 5 meetings on record, Vasteras SK FK have won 1, IF Brommapojkarna have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 Vasteras SK FK.
Who has won more matches between Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Vasteras SK FK, 75% for IF Brommapojkarna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Vasteras SK FK and 50% for IF Brommapojkarna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasteras SK FK home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasteras SK FK play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Vasteras SK FK's games and 75% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasteras SK FK vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Vasteras SK FK's matches and 50% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Vasteras SK FK and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Vasteras SK FK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as IF Brommapojkarna defy the odds to beat Vasteras SK FK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Vasteras SK FK 0-1 at Iver Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasteras SK FK 2.02 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.42 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vasteras SK FK fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasteras SK FK attack 1.13 / defence 1.19 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.92 / defence 1.23, drawn from 47/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasteras SK FK 51% | Draw 23% | IF Brommapojkarna 26%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual IF Brommapojkarna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasteras SK FK 71%, IF Brommapojkarna 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 76%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Brommapojkarna arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.06. That form edge translated into the three points. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.