Utsikten 0-1 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Utsikten vs Jonkopings Sodra encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jonkopings Sodra make the trip to Bravida Arena to face Utsikten in Superettan, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 September 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
Utsikten (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Utsikten's home record at Bravida Arena: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Utsikten are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
Jonkopings Sodra have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Jonkopings Sodra have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Jonkopings Sodra are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Utsikten have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Jonkopings Sodra in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Utsikten lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 7.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2022, ended 2–5 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Utsikten — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Jonkopings Sodra — key trading statistics (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Utsikten 54% and Jonkopings Sodra 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 54% | Jonkopings Sodra 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 0.99 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 0.739 / defence 0.995 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.868 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.331. Utsikten's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Utsikten games / 52 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Utsikten 30% | Draw 32% | Jonkopings Sodra 38%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Jonkopings Sodra 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jonkopings Sodra are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Utsikten 60% | Jonkopings Sodra 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 30% | Draw 32% | Jonkopings Sodra 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Utsikten 0.99 / Jonkopings Sodra 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 0.739 / def 0.995 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.868 / def 0.957 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Jonkopings Sodra xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Utsikten vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Utsikten 0 - 1 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Utsikten vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Utsikten vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 30% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Utsikten and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (1 meetings): Utsikten 0W | Draws 0 | Jonkopings Sodra 1W.
What form are Utsikten and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Utsikten (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Utsikten's attack rating (0.74) and Jonkopings Sodra's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Jonkopings Sodra's attack (0.87x) against Utsikten's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 22/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
30%
3.35
32%
3.13
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.13
1.15
Jonkopings Sodra xG
3.35
30%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
9%
10.56
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.6 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.15 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 22 outings, Utsikten have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 8W 5D 9L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra's form line: 6W 6D 10L from 22 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Utsikten against 1.09 for Jonkopings Sodra. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Utsikten have posted 1.27 PPG from 11 outings (3W 5D 3L).
On the road, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 2W 5D 4L from 11 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Utsikten are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.36 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra in 68%.
Last 22 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utsikten and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 8W 5D 9L in their last 22 games (1.32 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Utsikten's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 1.27 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Utsikten or Jonkopings Sodra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utsikten have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Jonkopings Sodra in 9%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 August 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Utsikten have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jonkopings Sodra won 5-2 on 14 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Utsikten have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Jonkopings Sodra — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Utsikten
0
Draws
2
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 4 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 2, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 5 August 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 0-2 Utsikten.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Utsikten, 73% for Jonkopings Sodra — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Utsikten) and 46% (Jonkopings Sodra).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utsikten play Jonkopings Sodra?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Utsikten's games and 73% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utsikten vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Utsikten's recent games and 46% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Utsikten and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Utsikten have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jonkopings Sodra edge out Utsikten 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Utsikten 0-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 0.99 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 1.15 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Utsikten fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 0.74 / defence 0.99 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.87 / defence 0.96, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 30% | Draw 32% | Jonkopings Sodra 38%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 54%, Jonkopings Sodra 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Utsikten 1.32 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jonkopings Sodra win broke the near-deadlock. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.