Utsikten 0-0 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Utsikten at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Utsikten vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Utsikten host Gefle IF at Bravida Arena in Superettan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Utsikten have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Utsikten have posted 5W 4D 1L at Bravida Arena — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Utsikten are significantly better at Bravida Arena than their overall form suggests.
Gefle IF — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gefle IF's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Utsikten at 1.00 PPG versus Gefle IF's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Utsikten register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Gefle IF in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Utsikten have won 0, Gefle IF 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Utsikten trading profile (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Gefle IF trading profile (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Utsikten 53% versus Gefle IF 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Utsikten 53% | Gefle IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Utsikten 1.52 xG and Gefle IF 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Utsikten attack 1.065 / defence 0.971 | Gefle IF attack 0.975 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.089. Data: 31 Utsikten games / 31 Gefle IF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Utsikten 49% | Draw 26% | Gefle IF 26%. Fair-value odds: Utsikten 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Gefle IF 3.85. Utsikten hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Utsikten as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Utsikten 60% | Gefle IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Utsikten vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Utsikten 49% | Draw 26% | Gefle IF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 50% | xG Utsikten 1.52 / Gefle IF 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Utsikten attack 1.065 / def 0.971 | Gefle IF attack 0.975 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Utsikten xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Gefle IF xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Utsikten vs Gefle IF kick off?
Utsikten vs Gefle IF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in Utsikten vs Gefle IF?
Utsikten 0 - 0 Gefle IF.
Where is Utsikten vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is Utsikten vs Gefle IF part of?
Utsikten vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Utsikten vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Utsikten a 49% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in Utsikten vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Utsikten and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Utsikten vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Gefle IF?
Record (2 meetings): Utsikten 0W | Draws 2 | Gefle IF 0W.
What form are Utsikten and Gefle IF in?
Utsikten (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-W. Gefle IF (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Utsikten's attack at 1.06x the league average against Gefle IF's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gefle IF's attack versus Utsikten's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
49%
2.06
26%
3.88
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Utsikten xG
Total xG
2.55
1.03
Gefle IF xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
6%
17.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.2 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Utsikten vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Utsikten and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Utsikten and 1.03 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Utsikten vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Utsikten have picked up 1.83 PPG on a 16W 7D 7L record — D-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Gefle IF's form line: 9W 10D 11L from 30 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D.
Put side by side, Utsikten are the form team by 0.60 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gefle IF.
Venue Form
On home soil, Utsikten have posted 2.07 PPG from 15 outings (9W 4D 2L).
On the road, Gefle IF have gone 2W 6D 7L from 15 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.23 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gefle IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utsikten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Utsikten are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.20 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Utsikten
Current Season
Gefle IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Utsikten and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
Utsikten have gone 16W 7D 7L in their last 30 games (1.83 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Utsikten at home or Gefle IF away?
Utsikten's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Utsikten at home: 2.07 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Utsikten or Gefle IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Utsikten have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gefle IF in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 November 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Utsikten's record when hosting Gefle IF specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Utsikten
3
Draws
1
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Utsikten and Gefle IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Utsikten have won 0, Gefle IF have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Utsikten and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2024, when Gefle IF 2-0 Utsikten.
Who has won more matches between Utsikten and Gefle IF?
Gefle IF have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Utsikten 67%, Gefle IF 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Utsikten) and 47% (Gefle IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utsikten keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gefle IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Utsikten home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Utsikten play Gefle IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Utsikten's games and 60% of Gefle IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Utsikten vs Gefle IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Utsikten's matches and 47% of Gefle IF's.
Do Utsikten and Gefle IF tend to score early?
Utsikten have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Gefle IF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Utsikten's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Utsikten and Gefle IF finished level at 0-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Utsikten 1.52 xG and Gefle IF 1.03 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Utsikten fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Gefle IF landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Utsikten attack 1.06 / defence 0.97 against Gefle IF attack 0.97 / defence 0.98, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Utsikten 49% | Draw 26% | Gefle IF 26%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Utsikten 53%, Gefle IF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Utsikten's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gefle IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Utsikten arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.13 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.87 average — tighter than their form line. Gefle IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.