Trelleborg 1-4 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Osters IF travel to Vångavallen to take on Trelleborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 30 June 2024, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Trelleborg at Vångavallen this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Osters IF — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Osters IF's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Trelleborg) versus 1.80 (Osters IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Trelleborg, 3 for Osters IF and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 1–3 with Osters IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Trelleborg trading profile (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Osters IF trading profile (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trelleborg 63% and Osters IF 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 63% | Osters IF 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.25 xG and Osters IF 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 0.930 / defence 1.003 | Osters IF attack 1.005 / defence 0.925. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.119. Data: 43 Trelleborg games / 43 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 39% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 33%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Osters IF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trelleborg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: Trelleborg 40% | Osters IF 90% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jun 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 39% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Trelleborg 1.25 / Osters IF 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 0.930 / def 1.003 | Osters IF attack 1.005 / def 0.925 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Osters IF xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Osters IF kick off?
Trelleborg vs Osters IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 June 2024 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Trelleborg 1 - 4 Osters IF.
Where is Trelleborg vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Osters IF part of?
Trelleborg vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 39% chance of winning, Osters IF a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Trelleborg and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Osters IF?
Record (6 meetings): Trelleborg 2W | Draws 1 | Osters IF 3W.
What form are Trelleborg and Osters IF in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Osters IF (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Trelleborg's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Osters IF's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Osters IF's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
39%
2.57
28%
3.58
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.38
1.13
Osters IF xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.95
10%
10.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 10.5 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.1 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.13 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Trelleborg come into this having played 60 games, going 23W 15D 22L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Osters IF sit at 1.65 PPG from 60 outings (28W 15D 17L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.40 PPG, Osters IF on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Trelleborg's home form reads 13W 6D 11L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Osters IF have taken 1.50 points per game from 30 outings (12W 9D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Trelleborg are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.70 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Osters IF in 65%.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
Osters IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 23W 15D 22L in their last 60 games (1.40 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 28W 15D 17L in their last 60 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Osters IF away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.50 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Trelleborg and Osters IF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osters IF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Apr 2023, when Osters IF won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Osters IF specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
1
Draws
5
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Osters IF?
From 8 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Osters IF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2024, when Osters IF 4-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Trelleborg at 57%, Osters IF at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Trelleborg and 63% for Osters IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Trelleborg's games and 73% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Trelleborg's matches and 63% of Osters IF's.
Do Trelleborg and Osters IF tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Osters IF run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osters IF beat Trelleborg 1-4 at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 14, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.25 xG and Osters IF 1.13 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Osters IF outscored their 1.13 projection by 2.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Osters IF attack 1.00 / defence 0.93, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 39% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 33%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Osters IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 63%, Osters IF 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.40 PPG, Osters IF 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osters IF win broke the near-deadlock. Trelleborg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osters IF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.