Trelleborg 1-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Vångavallen to take on Trelleborg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 May 2022, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Trelleborg stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Trelleborg have posted 6W 1D 3L at Vångavallen — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Trelleborg are significantly better at Vångavallen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 0W 1D 9L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Trelleborg at 0.70 PPG versus Landskrona BoIS's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Trelleborg have won 0, Landskrona BoIS 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Landskrona BoIS in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Trelleborg 63% and Landskrona BoIS 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Trelleborg 47% | Landskrona BoIS 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Trelleborg 1.61 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Trelleborg attack 1.071 / defence 0.896 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.895 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.437 / away 1.370. Data: 39 Trelleborg games / 39 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Trelleborg 48% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 25%. Fair-value odds: Trelleborg 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Landskrona BoIS 4.00. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Trelleborg are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Trelleborg 60% | Landskrona BoIS 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Vångavallen • Kick-off: Saturday 28 May 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Trelleborg 48% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Trelleborg 1.61 / Landskrona BoIS 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Trelleborg attack 1.071 / def 0.896 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.895 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.437 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Trelleborg xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Landskrona BoIS xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 28 May 2022 at Vångavallen.
What was the final score in Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Trelleborg 1 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Vångavallen.
What competition is Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Trelleborg a 48% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (2 meetings): Trelleborg 0W | Draws 1 | Landskrona BoIS 1W.
What form are Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS in?
Trelleborg (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Trelleborg's attack at 1.07x the league average against Landskrona BoIS's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Trelleborg's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
48%
2.07
27%
3.75
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Trelleborg xG
Total xG
2.71
1.10
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
20%
5.00
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
5%
20.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.8 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Trelleborg and 1.10 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Trelleborg's recent record stands at 11W 10D 9L from 30 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 13W 5D 12L across 30 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-L-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Trelleborg on 1.43 PPG, Landskrona BoIS on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Trelleborg have managed 8W 3D 4L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 2W 3D 10L across 15 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.47 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Landskrona BoIS's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Trelleborg are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.37 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Trelleborg
Current Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Trelleborg have gone 11W 10D 9L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 13W 5D 12L in their last 30 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Trelleborg at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Trelleborg's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Trelleborg at home: 1.80 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 25 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Trelleborg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when Landskrona BoIS won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Trelleborg's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Trelleborg
3
Draws
5
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS?
From 10 meetings on record, Trelleborg have won 2, Landskrona BoIS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 25 August 2025, when Trelleborg 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Trelleborg 60%, Landskrona BoIS 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Trelleborg) and 53% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Trelleborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Landskrona BoIS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Trelleborg home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Trelleborg play Landskrona BoIS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Trelleborg's games and 60% of Landskrona BoIS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Trelleborg vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Trelleborg's recent games and 53% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Trelleborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vångavallen, Regular Season - 10, as Trelleborg and Landskrona BoIS drew 1-1 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Trelleborg 1.61 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.10 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Trelleborg attack 1.07 / defence 0.90 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.90 / defence 1.04, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Trelleborg 48% | Draw 27% | Landskrona BoIS 25%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Trelleborg 47%, Landskrona BoIS 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Trelleborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Trelleborg 1.43 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.