Skövde AIK 0-2 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Skövde AIK at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Skövde AIK vs Sandviken encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Skövde AIK host Sandviken at Södermalms IP in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 June 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Skövde AIK stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Superettan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Skövde AIK have posted 8W 0D 2L at Södermalms IP — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Södermalms IP.
Across all Superettan games this season, Sandviken have recorded 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Sandviken haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On current form, Skövde AIK have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Skövde AIK 1.05 xG and Sandviken 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Skövde AIK attack 0.738 / defence 0.932 | Sandviken attack 0.934 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 0.988. Skövde AIK's attack strength of 0.738 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Skövde AIK games / 12 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Skövde AIK 39% | Draw 31% | Sandviken 29%. Fair-value odds: Skövde AIK 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Sandviken 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Skövde AIK at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.91 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.3 goals per game points in the other direction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Skövde AIK vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Södermalms IP • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Jun 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Skövde AIK 39% | Draw 31% | Sandviken 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 38% | xG Skövde AIK 1.05 / Sandviken 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Skövde AIK attack 0.738 / def 0.932 | Sandviken attack 0.934 / def 1.070 | league avg home 1.334 / away 0.988 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Skövde AIK xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Sandviken xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Skövde AIK vs Sandviken kick off?
Skövde AIK vs Sandviken kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 June 2024 at Södermalms IP.
What was the final score in Skövde AIK vs Sandviken?
Skövde AIK 0 - 2 Sandviken.
Where is Skövde AIK vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at Södermalms IP.
What competition is Skövde AIK vs Sandviken part of?
Skövde AIK vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Skövde AIK vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives Skövde AIK a 39% chance of winning, Sandviken a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Skövde AIK vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Skövde AIK and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will Skövde AIK vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Sandviken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Skövde AIK and Sandviken in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Sandviken (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Skövde AIK's attack rating (0.74) and Sandviken's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sandviken's attack versus Skövde AIK's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.18
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Skövde AIK xG
Total xG
1.91
0.86
Sandviken xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.8 | 12.7 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Skövde AIK vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.5%.
How many goals are Skövde AIK and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Skövde AIK and 0.86 for Sandviken, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Skövde AIK vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Skövde AIK's recent record stands at 1W 1D 0L from 2 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Skövde AIK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sandviken, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five. Sandviken haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Skövde AIK by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sandviken heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Skövde AIK are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Defensively: Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Skövde AIK
Early Season
Sandviken
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Skövde AIK and Sandviken in coming into this match?
Skövde AIK have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
Have Skövde AIK or Sandviken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Skövde AIK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Sandviken in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Skövde AIK
1
Draws
1
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Skövde AIK and Sandviken?
From 2 meetings on record, Skövde AIK have won 0, Sandviken have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Skövde AIK and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2024, when Sandviken 2-2 Skövde AIK.
Who has won more matches between Skövde AIK and Sandviken?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Skövde AIK home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Skövde AIK play Sandviken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Skövde AIK's recent matches and 50% of Sandviken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Skövde AIK vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Skövde AIK's matches and 50% of Sandviken's.
Do Skövde AIK and Sandviken tend to score early?
Skövde AIK have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sandviken cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Skövde AIK 0-2 at Södermalms IP, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Skövde AIK 1.05 xG and Sandviken 0.86 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Skövde AIK fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sandviken outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Skövde AIK attack 0.74 / defence 0.93 against Sandviken attack 0.93 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Skövde AIK 39% | Draw 31% | Sandviken 29%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Sandviken win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Skövde AIK 100%, Sandviken 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Skövde AIK arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Sandviken winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Skövde AIK managed 0 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sandviken conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.