Sandviken 4-0 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sandviken at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sandviken vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena Jernvallen plays host to Sandviken versus Gefle IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 3 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sandviken have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sandviken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sandviken have posted 5W 0D 2L at Arena Jernvallen — 2.14 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Gefle IF's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gefle IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Gefle IF have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Sandviken, 1.40 for Gefle IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Sandviken lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Sandviken half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Gefle IF half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sandviken 50% versus Gefle IF 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sandviken 56% | Gefle IF 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sandviken 1.63 xG and Gefle IF 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sandviken attack 0.985 / defence 1.048 | Gefle IF attack 1.177 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.134. Data: 16 Sandviken games / 46 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sandviken 43% | Draw 24% | Gefle IF 33%. Fair-value odds: Sandviken 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | Gefle IF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sandviken as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sandviken if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sandviken 57% | Gefle IF 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sandviken vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Arena Jernvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sandviken 43% | Draw 24% | Gefle IF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Sandviken 1.63 / Gefle IF 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Sandviken attack 0.985 / def 1.048 | Gefle IF attack 1.177 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Sandviken (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Sandviken xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Gefle IF xG
61%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sandviken vs Gefle IF kick off?
Sandviken vs Gefle IF kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 3 August 2024 at Arena Jernvallen.
What was the final score in Sandviken vs Gefle IF?
Sandviken 4 - 0 Gefle IF.
Where is Sandviken vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Arena Jernvallen.
What competition is Sandviken vs Gefle IF part of?
Sandviken vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Sandviken vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Sandviken a 43% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sandviken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sandviken vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sandviken and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Sandviken vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Gefle IF?
Record (1 meetings): Sandviken 0W | Draws 1 | Gefle IF 0W.
What form are Sandviken and Gefle IF in?
Sandviken (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Gefle IF (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sandviken's attack at 0.98x the league average against Gefle IF's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gefle IF's attack (1.18x) against Sandviken's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sandviken Win
43%
2.32
24%
4.17
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Sandviken xG
Total xG
3.03
1.40
Gefle IF xG
2.32
43%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
6%
15.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.0 | 7.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.0 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sandviken vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sandviken and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Sandviken and 1.40 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Sandviken vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 16 outings, Sandviken have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 7W 3D 6L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sandviken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gefle IF's form line: 4W 6D 6L from 16 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. The sample for Gefle IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Sandviken against 1.12 for Gefle IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sandviken have posted 2.14 PPG from 7 outings (5W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.50 PPG overall — Sandviken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Gefle IF have gone 1W 2D 4L from 7 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gefle IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sandviken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sandviken are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Gefle IF are on 1.62 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gefle IF in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sandviken
Blended
Gefle IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sandviken and Gefle IF in coming into this match?
Sandviken have gone 7W 3D 6L in their last 16 games (1.50 PPG), while Gefle IF have gone 4W 6D 6L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sandviken at home or Gefle IF away?
Sandviken's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sandviken at home: 2.14 PPG; Gefle IF away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Sandviken or Gefle IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sandviken have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Gefle IF in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 August 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sandviken
1
Draws
0
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sandviken and Gefle IF?
From 2 meetings on record, Sandviken have won 1, Gefle IF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sandviken and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2024, when Sandviken 4-0 Gefle IF.
Who has won more matches between Sandviken and Gefle IF?
Sandviken have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sandviken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Gefle IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sandviken 57%, Gefle IF 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Sandviken and 71% for Gefle IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Gefle IF in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sandviken home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sandviken play Gefle IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Sandviken's games and 57% of Gefle IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sandviken vs Gefle IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Sandviken's matches and 71% of Gefle IF's.
Do Sandviken and Gefle IF tend to score early?
Sandviken have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Gefle IF in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sandviken run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Gefle IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sandviken beat Gefle IF 4-0 at Arena Jernvallen, Regular Season - 17, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sandviken 1.63 xG and Gefle IF 1.40 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sandviken beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Gefle IF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sandviken attack 0.98 / defence 1.05 against Gefle IF attack 1.18 / defence 1.12, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sandviken 43% | Draw 24% | Gefle IF 33%, with Sandviken to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sandviken 56%, Gefle IF 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sandviken's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Gefle IF's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sandviken 1.50 PPG, Gefle IF 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sandviken win broke the near-deadlock. Sandviken (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Gefle IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.