Ostersunds FK 2-0 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Trelleborg travel to Jämtkraft Arena to take on Ostersunds FK. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 October 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ostersunds FK stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ostersunds FK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ostersunds FK have posted 2W 5D 3L at Jämtkraft Arena — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Trelleborg — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Ostersunds FK 1.50 PPG, Trelleborg 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ostersunds FK, 0 for Trelleborg and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Ostersunds FK in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Trelleborg in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ostersunds FK 46% versus Trelleborg 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ostersunds FK 47% | Trelleborg 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ostersunds FK 1.38 xG and Trelleborg 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ostersunds FK attack 0.793 / defence 1.130 | Trelleborg attack 1.136 / defence 1.250. League average goals — home 1.393 / away 1.285. Ostersunds FK's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.250 — this is suppressing Ostersunds FK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Ostersunds FK games / 57 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 31% | Draw 26% | Trelleborg 43%. Fair-value odds: Ostersunds FK 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Trelleborg 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Trelleborg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Trelleborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ostersunds FK 50% | Trelleborg 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Jämtkraft Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ostersunds FK 31% | Draw 26% | Trelleborg 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Ostersunds FK 1.38 / Trelleborg 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Ostersunds FK attack 0.793 / def 1.130 | Trelleborg attack 1.136 / def 1.250 | league avg home 1.393 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Ostersunds FK xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Trelleborg xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg kick off?
Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at Jämtkraft Arena.
What was the final score in Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg?
Ostersunds FK 2 - 0 Trelleborg.
Where is Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Jämtkraft Arena.
What competition is Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg part of?
Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives Ostersunds FK a 31% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg?
Record (1 meetings): Ostersunds FK 0W | Draws 1 | Trelleborg 0W.
What form are Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg in?
Ostersunds FK (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ostersunds FK's attack at 0.79x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Trelleborg's attack versus Ostersunds FK's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
31%
3.22
26%
3.83
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Ostersunds FK xG
Total xG
3.03
1.65
Trelleborg xG
3.22
31%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
6%
16.76
11%
9.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.0 | 9.1 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.5 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Ostersunds FK and 1.65 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ostersunds FK come into this having played 57 games, going 8W 14D 35L for 0.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-D. The sample for Ostersunds FK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Trelleborg sit at 1.49 PPG from 57 outings (23W 16D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.82 PPG clear of Ostersunds FK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ostersunds FK's home form reads 6W 7D 15L across 28 games on their own ground, a 0.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Trelleborg have taken 1.21 points per game from 28 outings (8W 10D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Ostersunds FK are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.51 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 68%.
Last 57 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ostersunds FK
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
Ostersunds FK have gone 8W 14D 35L in their last 57 games (0.67 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 23W 16D 18L in their last 57 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ostersunds FK at home or Trelleborg away?
Trelleborg's away record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ostersunds FK at home: 0.89 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 1 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ostersunds FK have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Ostersunds FK's record when hosting Trelleborg specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Ostersunds FK
2
Draws
2
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg?
From 8 meetings on record, Ostersunds FK have won 4, Trelleborg have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2025, when Ostersunds FK 2-0 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg?
Ostersunds FK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ostersunds FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ostersunds FK 50%, Trelleborg 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Ostersunds FK) and 57% (Trelleborg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ostersunds FK have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ostersunds FK home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ostersunds FK play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Ostersunds FK's games and 71% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ostersunds FK vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Ostersunds FK's matches and 57% of Trelleborg's.
Do Ostersunds FK and Trelleborg tend to score early?
Ostersunds FK have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ostersunds FK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Trelleborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ostersunds FK beat Trelleborg 2-0 at Jämtkraft Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ostersunds FK 1.38 xG and Trelleborg 1.65 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Trelleborg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ostersunds FK attack 0.79 / defence 1.13 against Trelleborg attack 1.14 / defence 1.25, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ostersunds FK 31% | Draw 26% | Trelleborg 43%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Ostersunds FK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ostersunds FK 47%, Trelleborg 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ostersunds FK's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Trelleborg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with Ostersunds FK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ostersunds FK (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.