Osters IF 0-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Osters IF at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Landskrona BoIS make the trip to Spiris Arena to face Osters IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 August 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Osters IF's overall Superettan record this term: 5W 0D 5L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Osters IF have posted 6W 1D 3L at Spiris Arena — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Spiris Arena.
Landskrona BoIS (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Osters IF against 1.60 for Landskrona BoIS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Osters IF, who have won 4 of the last 9 meetings against Landskrona BoIS — a 5D 0W return for the visitors.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Osters IF and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (47 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osters IF 49% versus Landskrona BoIS 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osters IF 49% | Landskrona BoIS 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osters IF 1.48 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osters IF attack 1.081 / defence 0.982 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.977 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.355. Data: 17 Osters IF games / 47 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osters IF 41% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 33%. Fair-value odds: Osters IF 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Landskrona BoIS 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osters IF 50% | Landskrona BoIS 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Spiris Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osters IF 41% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG Osters IF 1.48 / Landskrona BoIS 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Osters IF attack 1.081 / def 0.982 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.977 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Osters IF xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Landskrona BoIS xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Spiris Arena.
What was the final score in Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Osters IF 0 - 1 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Spiris Arena.
What competition is Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Osters IF a 41% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (9 meetings): Osters IF 4W | Draws 5 | Landskrona BoIS 0W.
What form are Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS in?
Osters IF (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Osters IF's attack rating (1.08) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.98x) against Osters IF's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 17/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
41%
2.41
25%
3.96
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Osters IF xG
Total xG
2.78
1.30
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
11%
8.85
8%
13.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.9 | 7.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Osters IF and 1.30 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Osters IF's recent record stands at 14W 10D 23L from 47 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS, meanwhile, have gone 18W 12D 17L across 47 games — 1.40 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Osters IF against 1.40 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Osters IF have managed 9W 4D 11L from 24 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Landskrona BoIS's away record stands at 9W 4D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Osters IF are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.32 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osters IF
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Osters IF have gone 14W 10D 23L in their last 47 games (1.11 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 18W 12D 17L in their last 47 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osters IF at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Osters IF's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osters IF at home: 1.29 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osters IF won 1-4 on 2 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osters IF have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Landskrona BoIS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Osters IF
5
Draws
1
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS?
From 10 meetings on record, Osters IF have won 4, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Osters IF 0-1 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osters IF 46%, Landskrona BoIS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Osters IF) and 54% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Osters IF have failed to score in 29% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osters IF home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osters IF play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Osters IF's recent matches and 54% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osters IF vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Osters IF's recent games and 54% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osters IF and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Osters IF have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Landskrona BoIS defy the odds to beat Osters IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Osters IF 0-1 at Spiris Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osters IF 1.48 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.30 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Osters IF fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osters IF attack 1.08 / defence 0.98 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osters IF 41% | Draw 25% | Landskrona BoIS 33%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Landskrona BoIS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osters IF 49%, Landskrona BoIS 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osters IF's trading profile (47 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (47 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osters IF 1.11 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. Osters IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.