Orgryte IS 0-0 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Orgryte IS face GIF Sundsvall.

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Analysis & Preview

GIF Sundsvall travel to Gamla Ullevi to take on Orgryte IS in Superettan (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Saturday 12 April 2025 at 15:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Orgryte IS have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

GIF Sundsvall — last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

GIF Sundsvall's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Orgryte IS 2.10 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Orgryte IS have won 2, GIF Sundsvall 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended Orgryte IS 1–1 GIF Sundsvall — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).

GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orgryte IS 61% versus GIF Sundsvall 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orgryte IS 56% | GIF Sundsvall 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.46 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.211 / defence 1.013 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.810 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.202 / away 1.257. Data: built from Orgryte IS's last 32 games and GIF Sundsvall's last 32. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 47% | Draw 26% | GIF Sundsvall 27%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.13 | Draw 3.80 | GIF Sundsvall 3.75. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches — though recent form (Orgryte IS's last 10 home games and GIF Sundsvall's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Orgryte IS 80% (last 10 home games) | GIF Sundsvall 30% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Orgryte IS 32 games, GIF Sundsvall 32) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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