Orgryte IS 3-1 Gefle IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Orgryte IS host Gefle IF at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Orgryte IS — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Orgryte IS's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Gamla Ullevi this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orgryte IS 1.35 xG and Gefle IF 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orgryte IS attack 1.031 / defence 1.021 | Gefle IF attack 0.762 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.125. Data: 38 Orgryte IS games / 8 Gefle IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orgryte IS 48% | Draw 28% | Gefle IF 24%. Fair-value odds: Orgryte IS 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Gefle IF 4.17. Orgryte IS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Orgryte IS are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 27 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orgryte IS 48% | Draw 28% | Gefle IF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Orgryte IS 1.35 / Gefle IF 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Orgryte IS attack 1.031 / def 1.021 | Gefle IF attack 0.762 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.420 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Orgryte IS xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Gefle IF xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF kick off?
Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 27 May 2023 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF?
Orgryte IS 3 - 1 Gefle IF.
Where is Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF part of?
Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF?
Our statistical model gives Orgryte IS a 48% chance of winning, Gefle IF a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Orgryte IS and Gefle IF will score (BTTS).
Will Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Gefle IF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orgryte IS and Gefle IF in?
Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Orgryte IS home split: 1.30 PPG from 10 | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Orgryte IS's attack at 1.03x the league average against Gefle IF's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gefle IF's attack versus Orgryte IS's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.52
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Orgryte IS xG
Total xG
2.22
0.88
Gefle IF xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
20%
5.05
6%
15.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Orgryte IS and Gefle IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Orgryte IS and 0.88 for Gefle IF, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Orgryte IS vs Gefle IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orgryte IS
Pre-Season
Gefle IF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Orgryte IS go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2024, when Orgryte IS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orgryte IS's record when hosting Gefle IF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Orgryte IS
0
Draws
0
Gefle IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orgryte IS and Gefle IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Orgryte IS have won 4, Gefle IF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orgryte IS and Gefle IF last play each other?
They last met on 15 September 2024, when Gefle IF 2-3 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Orgryte IS and Gefle IF?
Orgryte IS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orgryte IS home games / Gefle IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Orgryte IS cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Gefle IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orgryte IS beat Gefle IF 3-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 9, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orgryte IS 1.35 xG and Gefle IF 0.88 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Orgryte IS beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orgryte IS attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Gefle IF attack 0.76 / defence 0.92, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orgryte IS 48% | Draw 28% | Gefle IF 24%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.