Orebro SK 1-2 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 28 sees Landskrona BoIS travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 October 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orebro SK stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Orebro SK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Landskrona BoIS's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Orebro SK) versus 1.40 (Landskrona BoIS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Orebro SK, 3 for Landskrona BoIS and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jun 2025, ended 0–1 with Landskrona BoIS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 65% versus Landskrona BoIS 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 54% | Landskrona BoIS 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.47 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.952 / defence 1.029 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.779 / defence 0.984. League average goals — home 1.569 / away 1.178. Data: 57 Orebro SK games / 57 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 49% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 23%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Landskrona BoIS 4.35. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.41 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 70% | Landskrona BoIS 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 49% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Orebro SK 1.47 / Landskrona BoIS 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.952 / def 1.029 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.779 / def 0.984 | league avg home 1.569 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Landskrona BoIS xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Orebro SK 1 - 2 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 49% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS?
Record (7 meetings): Orebro SK 2W | Draws 2 | Landskrona BoIS 3W.
What form are Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Landskrona BoIS's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Landskrona BoIS's attack versus Orebro SK's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
49%
2.06
28%
3.59
23%
4.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.41
0.94
Landskrona BoIS xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.26
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
19%
5.28
5%
18.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Orebro SK and 0.94 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Orebro SK have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 13W 18D 26L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Orebro SK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 23W 14D 20L from 57 games, 1.46 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Landskrona BoIS are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Orebro SK.
Venue Form
On home soil, Orebro SK have posted 1.43 PPG from 28 outings (10W 10D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Orebro SK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 10W 5D 13L from 28 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Orebro SK are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.37 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orebro SK have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 57 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Blended
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 13W 18D 26L in their last 57 games (1.00 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 23W 14D 20L in their last 57 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.43 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Nov 2023, when Orebro SK won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Orebro SK's record when hosting Landskrona BoIS specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Orebro SK
2
Draws
4
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS?
From 9 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 3, Landskrona BoIS have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Orebro SK 1-0 Landskrona BoIS.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS?
Landskrona BoIS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Orebro SK see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 54%, Landskrona BoIS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Orebro SK) and 54% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 36% of games; Landskrona BoIS in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 54% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Orebro SK's recent games and 54% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Landskrona BoIS defy the odds to beat Orebro SK 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat Orebro SK 1-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.47 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.94 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 49% | Draw 28% | Landskrona BoIS 23%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Landskrona BoIS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 54%, Landskrona BoIS 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Orebro SK (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.