Orebro SK 1-0 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Orebro SK face Landskrona BoIS.

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Analysis & Preview

Landskrona BoIS travel to Behrn Arena to take on Orebro SK in Superettan (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Saturday 28 September 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Orebro SK stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Orebro SK have gone 5W 4D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Orebro SK are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Landskrona BoIS have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Landskrona BoIS's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Orebro SK) versus 0.90 (Landskrona BoIS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Orebro SK's games and 70% of Landskrona BoIS's (from Orebro SK's last 10 home games and Landskrona BoIS's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Orebro SK have won 1, Landskrona BoIS 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 19 May 2024, ended Orebro SK 0–0 Landskrona BoIS — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Orebro SK in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Landskrona BoIS in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 52% versus Landskrona BoIS 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 57% | Landskrona BoIS 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.28 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 1.091 / defence 0.777 | Landskrona BoIS attack 1.132 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.280 / away 1.197. Orebro SK have a tight defence (rating 0.777), which is pulling Landskrona BoIS's projected output down. Data: built from Orebro SK's last 54 games and Landskrona BoIS's last 54.

Result probabilities: Orebro SK 40% | Draw 30% | Landskrona BoIS 29%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.48 | Draw 3.31 | Landskrona BoIS 3.41. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Orebro SK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Orebro SK 60% (last 10 home games) | Landskrona BoIS 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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