Orebro SK 0-2 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Behrn Arena plays host to Orebro SK versus IF Brommapojkarna in Superettan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Orebro SK (all games): 6W 0D 4L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Orebro SK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Behrn Arena, Orebro SK have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.82 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.867 / defence 0.822 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.932 / defence 1.418. League average goals — home 1.483 / away 1.377. IF Brommapojkarna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.418 — this is suppressing Orebro SK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Orebro SK games / 9 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 54% | Draw 25% | IF Brommapojkarna 21%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | IF Brommapojkarna 4.76. Orebro SK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orebro SK at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orebro SK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 54% | Draw 25% | IF Brommapojkarna 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Orebro SK 1.82 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.867 / def 0.822 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.932 / def 1.418 | league avg home 1.483 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.05
IF Brommapojkarna xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Orebro SK vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 May 2022 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Orebro SK 0 - 2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Orebro SK vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Orebro SK vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 54% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Orebro SK and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IF Brommapojkarna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Orebro SK and IF Brommapojkarna in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Orebro SK (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Orebro SK's attack at 0.87x the league average against IF Brommapojkarna's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IF Brommapojkarna's attack (0.93x) against Orebro SK's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
54%
1.84
25%
3.97
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.88
1.05
IF Brommapojkarna xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
16%
6.20
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
3%
30.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.8 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.05 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Pre-Season
IF Brommapojkarna
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Orebro SK
0
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 2 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 0, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 3 August 2022, when IF Brommapojkarna 2-1 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
IF Brommapojkarna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Orebro SK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Orebro SK 0-2 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.82 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.05 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Orebro SK fell 1.8 short of their projected output. IF Brommapojkarna outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.87 / defence 0.82 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.93 / defence 1.42, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 54% | Draw 25% | IF Brommapojkarna 21%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a IF Brommapojkarna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.