Orebro SK 3-0 AFC Eskilstuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orebro SK at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AFC Eskilstuna make the trip to Behrn Arena to face Orebro SK in Superettan, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 April 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Orebro SK (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Superettan fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Orebro SK's home record at Behrn Arena: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Superettan appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
AFC Eskilstuna have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
AFC Eskilstuna away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Orebro SK, 0 for AFC Eskilstuna and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 1–0 with Orebro SK winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Orebro SK half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
AFC Eskilstuna half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Orebro SK 47% versus AFC Eskilstuna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Orebro SK 50% | AFC Eskilstuna 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Orebro SK 1.23 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Orebro SK attack 0.790 / defence 1.054 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.971 / defence 1.188. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.001. Orebro SK's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 1.23 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Orebro SK games / 34 AFC Eskilstuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Orebro SK 41% | Draw 29% | AFC Eskilstuna 31%. Fair-value odds: Orebro SK 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | AFC Eskilstuna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Orebro SK as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orebro SK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Orebro SK 50% | AFC Eskilstuna 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Orebro SK 41% | Draw 29% | AFC Eskilstuna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Orebro SK 1.23 / AFC Eskilstuna 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Orebro SK attack 0.790 / def 1.054 | AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.971 / def 1.188 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.001 • Poisson stance: Orebro SK (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Orebro SK xG
Expected Goals
1.02
AFC Eskilstuna xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna kick off?
Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Orebro SK 3 - 0 AFC Eskilstuna.
Where is Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna part of?
Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our statistical model gives Orebro SK a 41% chance of winning, AFC Eskilstuna a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Orebro SK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna will score (BTTS).
Will Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna?
Record (2 meetings): Orebro SK 2W | Draws 0 | AFC Eskilstuna 0W.
What form are Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna in?
Orebro SK (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. AFC Eskilstuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Orebro SK's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against AFC Eskilstuna's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. Flip it around — AFC Eskilstuna's attack (0.97x) against Orebro SK's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orebro SK Win
41%
2.45
29%
3.50
31%
3.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Orebro SK xG
Total xG
2.25
1.02
AFC Eskilstuna xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.26
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 10.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Orebro SK and 1.02 for AFC Eskilstuna, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Orebro SK come into this having played 60 games, going 14W 13D 33L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D.
On the other side, AFC Eskilstuna sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (23W 11D 26L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five.
AFC Eskilstuna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Orebro SK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Orebro SK's home form reads 8W 7D 15L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.03 PPG return.
Away from home, AFC Eskilstuna have taken 0.90 points per game from 30 outings (7W 6D 17L). That's a step down from their 1.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AFC Eskilstuna's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Orebro SK are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; AFC Eskilstuna are on 1.48 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Orebro SK
Current Season
AFC Eskilstuna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna in coming into this match?
Orebro SK have gone 14W 13D 33L in their last 60 games (0.92 PPG), while AFC Eskilstuna have gone 23W 11D 26L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Orebro SK at home or AFC Eskilstuna away?
Orebro SK's home record (1.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Orebro SK at home: 1.03 PPG; AFC Eskilstuna away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Orebro SK won 3-0 on 30 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Orebro SK have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against AFC Eskilstuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Orebro SK
0
Draws
1
AFC Eskilstuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna?
From 4 meetings on record, Orebro SK have won 3, AFC Eskilstuna have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna last play each other?
They last met on 11 November 2023, when AFC Eskilstuna 3-0 Orebro SK.
Who has won more matches between Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna?
Orebro SK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Orebro SK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
AFC Eskilstuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Orebro SK 50%, AFC Eskilstuna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Orebro SK) and 53% (AFC Eskilstuna).
On the defensive side: Orebro SK have failed to score in 33% of games; AFC Eskilstuna in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Orebro SK home games / AFC Eskilstuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Orebro SK play AFC Eskilstuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Orebro SK's recent matches and 57% of AFC Eskilstuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Orebro SK vs AFC Eskilstuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Orebro SK's recent games and 53% of AFC Eskilstuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Orebro SK and AFC Eskilstuna tend to score early?
Orebro SK have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, AFC Eskilstuna in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Orebro SK run riot with a 3-0 hammering of AFC Eskilstuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Orebro SK beat AFC Eskilstuna 3-0 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Orebro SK 1.23 xG and AFC Eskilstuna 1.02 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Orebro SK beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AFC Eskilstuna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Orebro SK attack 0.79 / defence 1.05 against AFC Eskilstuna attack 0.97 / defence 1.19, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Orebro SK 41% | Draw 29% | AFC Eskilstuna 31%, with Orebro SK to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Orebro SK 50%, AFC Eskilstuna 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Orebro SK's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
AFC Eskilstuna's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AFC Eskilstuna arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Orebro SK winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Orebro SK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. AFC Eskilstuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.