Oddevold 1-5 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oddevold at 53%, yet in-form Vasteras SK FK provide a compelling counter-argument — this Oddevold vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 10 as Oddevold welcome Vasteras SK FK to Rimnersvallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Oddevold have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Oddevold's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Rimnersvallen this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Vasteras SK FK — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Vasteras SK FK haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Vasteras SK FK have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Vasteras SK FK's 2.00 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Oddevold's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
Oddevold in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Vasteras SK FK in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oddevold 60% versus Vasteras SK FK 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 63% | Vasteras SK FK 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 1.83 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.915 / defence 1.127 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.807 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.446 / away 1.270. Vasteras SK FK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing Oddevold's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Oddevold games / 9 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 53% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 24%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Vasteras SK FK 4.17. Oddevold hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Oddevold at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasteras SK FK (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oddevold offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Oddevold 60% | Vasteras SK FK 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Monday 26 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 53% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Oddevold 1.83 / Vasteras SK FK 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.915 / def 1.127 | Vasteras SK FK attack 0.807 / def 1.383 | league avg home 1.446 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: Oddevold (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Vasteras SK FK xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Oddevold vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 May 2025 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Vasteras SK FK?
Oddevold 1 - 5 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Oddevold vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Oddevold vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 53% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Oddevold the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Oddevold and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Oddevold and Vasteras SK FK in?
Oddevold (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Oddevold's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Vasteras SK FK's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.83. The same calculation in reverse, Vasteras SK FK's attack versus Oddevold's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oddevold Win
53%
1.88
23%
4.37
24%
4.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.99
1.16
Vasteras SK FK xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
4.18
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
16%
6.23
Win to Nil
17%
5.97
4%
26.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.16 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Oddevold have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 8W 12D 10L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Vasteras SK FK's form line: 19W 6D 5L from 30 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-L. Vasteras SK FK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Vasteras SK FK are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Oddevold.
Venue Form
On home soil, Oddevold have posted 1.27 PPG from 15 outings (4W 7D 4L).
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 9W 2D 4L from 15 away games — 1.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasteras SK FK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Oddevold are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Vasteras SK FK are on 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Oddevold have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Vasteras SK FK in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Current Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Vasteras SK FK in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 8W 12D 10L in their last 30 games (1.20 PPG), while Vasteras SK FK have gone 19W 6D 5L in their last 30 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Vasteras SK FK away?
Vasteras SK FK's away record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.27 PPG; Vasteras SK FK away: 1.93 PPG.
Have Oddevold or Vasteras SK FK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Vasteras SK FK in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 19 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Oddevold
0
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Vasteras SK FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 0, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2025, when Vasteras SK FK 2-0 Oddevold.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Vasteras SK FK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 60%, Vasteras SK FK 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Oddevold and 60% for Vasteras SK FK. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasteras SK FK in 33%; Oddevold have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Vasteras SK FK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Oddevold's games and 53% of Vasteras SK FK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oddevold vs Vasteras SK FK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Oddevold's matches and 60% of Vasteras SK FK's.
Do Oddevold and Vasteras SK FK tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Vasteras SK FK in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Vasteras SK FK run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Oddevold.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Oddevold 1-5 at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 10, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 1.83 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.16 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Oddevold fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK outscored their 1.16 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.92 / defence 1.13 against Vasteras SK FK attack 0.81 / defence 1.38, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 53% | Draw 23% | Vasteras SK FK 24%, with Oddevold to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Vasteras SK FK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 63%, Vasteras SK FK 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Vasteras SK FK's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Vasteras SK FK arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. Oddevold (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vasteras SK FK (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.