Oddevold 1-1 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Osters IF at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oddevold vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Oddevold and Osters IF meet at Rimnersvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Oddevold's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Oddevold, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Oddevold's home record at Rimnersvallen: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osters IF have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Osters IF have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Oddevold have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Osters IF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Oddevold, 1 for Osters IF and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2024, ended 0–3 with Osters IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Oddevold — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Osters IF — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oddevold 56% versus Osters IF 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oddevold 64% | Osters IF 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oddevold 0.94 xG and Osters IF 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oddevold attack 0.810 / defence 1.225 | Osters IF attack 1.013 / defence 0.840. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.167. Data: 25 Oddevold games / 55 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oddevold 24% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 48%. Fair-value odds: Oddevold 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | Osters IF 2.08. Osters IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Osters IF are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osters IF if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Oddevold 60% | Osters IF 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oddevold vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Rimnersvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oddevold 24% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG Oddevold 0.94 / Osters IF 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Oddevold attack 0.810 / def 1.225 | Osters IF attack 1.013 / def 0.840 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Oddevold xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Osters IF xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oddevold vs Osters IF kick off?
Oddevold vs Osters IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 6 October 2024 at Rimnersvallen.
What was the final score in Oddevold vs Osters IF?
Oddevold 1 - 1 Osters IF.
Where is Oddevold vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Rimnersvallen.
What competition is Oddevold vs Osters IF part of?
Oddevold vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Oddevold vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Oddevold a 24% chance of winning, Osters IF a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oddevold vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Oddevold and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Oddevold vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Osters IF?
Record (1 meetings): Oddevold 0W | Draws 0 | Osters IF 1W.
What form are Oddevold and Osters IF in?
Oddevold (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Osters IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Oddevold's attack at 0.81x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (1.01x) against Oddevold's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 25/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
24%
4.21
28%
3.57
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Oddevold xG
Total xG
2.39
1.45
Osters IF xG
4.21
24%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
23%
4.26
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
6%
17.91
19%
5.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 13.3 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.9 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oddevold vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Oddevold and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Oddevold and 1.45 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Oddevold vs Osters IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Oddevold's recent record stands at 7W 9D 9L from 25 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Oddevold is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF, meanwhile, have gone 12W 8D 5L across 25 games — 1.76 PPG, with D-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osters IF by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Oddevold heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Oddevold have managed 4W 5D 3L from 12 games — 1.42 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osters IF's away record stands at 4W 4D 4L across 12 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osters IF's season.
Attack vs Defence
Oddevold are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.72 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oddevold
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oddevold and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Oddevold have gone 7W 9D 9L in their last 25 games (1.20 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 12W 8D 5L in their last 25 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oddevold at home or Osters IF away?
Oddevold's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oddevold at home: 1.42 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Oddevold or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oddevold have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Osters IF in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osters IF won 3-0 on 10 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oddevold have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Oddevold
1
Draws
2
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oddevold and Osters IF?
From 3 meetings on record, Oddevold have won 0, Osters IF have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oddevold and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Oddevold 1-2 Osters IF.
Who has won more matches between Oddevold and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oddevold are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Osters IF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oddevold 58%, Osters IF 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Oddevold) and 50% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: Oddevold have failed to score in 33% of games; Osters IF in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oddevold home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oddevold play Osters IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Oddevold's games and 58% of Osters IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Oddevold vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Oddevold's recent games and 50% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oddevold and Osters IF tend to score early?
Oddevold have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oddevold and Osters IF share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Rimnersvallen, Regular Season - 26, as Oddevold and Osters IF drew 1-1 in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oddevold 0.94 xG and Osters IF 1.45 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oddevold attack 0.81 / defence 1.23 against Osters IF attack 1.01 / defence 0.84, drawn from 25/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oddevold 24% | Draw 28% | Osters IF 48%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oddevold 64%, Osters IF 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oddevold's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.