Norrby IF 2-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Norrby IF at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norrby IF vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Orgryte IS travel to Borås Arena to take on Norrby IF. The game is scheduled for Monday 9 August 2021, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Norrby IF have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Norrby IF have posted 4W 1D 1L at Borås Arena — 2.17 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orgryte IS have posted 2W 2D 3L from 7 away outings — 1.14 PPG. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Norrby IF carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.30 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Norrby IF in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Orgryte IS in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norrby IF 43% versus Orgryte IS 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Norrby IF 36% | Orgryte IS 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norrby IF 1.99 xG and Orgryte IS 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norrby IF attack 1.236 / defence 1.085 | Orgryte IS attack 0.919 / defence 1.460. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.082. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.460 — this is suppressing Norrby IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Norrby IF games / 14 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norrby IF 58% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 20%. Fair-value odds: Norrby IF 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | Orgryte IS 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Norrby IF (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Norrby IF at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Norrby IF 50% | Orgryte IS 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norrby IF vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 9 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norrby IF 58% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Norrby IF 1.99 / Orgryte IS 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Norrby IF attack 1.236 / def 1.085 | Orgryte IS attack 0.919 / def 1.460 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Norrby IF (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Norrby IF xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Orgryte IS xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norrby IF vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Norrby IF vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 9 August 2021 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in Norrby IF vs Orgryte IS?
Norrby IF 2 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Norrby IF vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is Norrby IF vs Orgryte IS part of?
Norrby IF vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Norrby IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Norrby IF a 58% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Norrby IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norrby IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Norrby IF and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Norrby IF vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Orgryte IS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Norrby IF and Orgryte IS in?
Norrby IF (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Norrby IF's attack at 1.24x the league average against Orgryte IS's defence at 1.46x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus Norrby IF's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Norrby IF Win
58%
1.71
21%
4.66
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Norrby IF xG
Total xG
3.07
1.08
Orgryte IS xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
20%
5.03
3%
36.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norrby IF vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Norrby IF and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Norrby IF and 1.08 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Norrby IF vs Orgryte IS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Norrby IF come into this having played 14 games, going 8W 3D 3L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-D. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.21 PPG from 14 outings (4W 5D 5L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Norrby IF's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.33 points per game from 6 outings (2W 2D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Norrby IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Norrby IF are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.00 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norrby IF
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norrby IF and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Norrby IF have gone 8W 3D 3L in their last 14 games (1.93 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 4W 5D 5L in their last 14 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norrby IF at home or Orgryte IS away?
Norrby IF's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norrby IF at home: 2.17 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Norrby IF or Orgryte IS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norrby IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Orgryte IS in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Norrby IF and Orgryte IS runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 August 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Aug 2022, when Orgryte IS won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Norrby IF's record when hosting Orgryte IS specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Norrby IF
2
Draws
1
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norrby IF and Orgryte IS?
From 4 meetings on record, Norrby IF have won 1, Orgryte IS have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Norrby IF and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2022, when Orgryte IS 5-1 Norrby IF.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norrby IF 50%, Orgryte IS 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Norrby IF) and 50% (Orgryte IS).
On the defensive side: Norrby IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norrby IF home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norrby IF play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Norrby IF's games and 67% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Norrby IF vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Norrby IF's recent games and 50% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Norrby IF and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Norrby IF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Norrby IF edge out Orgryte IS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Norrby IF beat Orgryte IS 2-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norrby IF 1.99 xG and Orgryte IS 1.08 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norrby IF attack 1.24 / defence 1.08 against Orgryte IS attack 0.92 / defence 1.46, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norrby IF 58% | Draw 21% | Orgryte IS 20%, with Norrby IF to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norrby IF 36%, Orgryte IS 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norrby IF's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Norrby IF arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.