Landskrona BoIS 1-4 Varbergs BoIS FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 20 as Landskrona BoIS welcome Varbergs BoIS FC to Landskrona Idrottsplats. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 August 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Landskrona BoIS have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Landskrona BoIS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Landskrona BoIS have posted 6W 2D 2L at Landskrona Idrottsplats — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
Varbergs BoIS FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Varbergs BoIS FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Varbergs BoIS FC have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Landskrona BoIS carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.00 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Landskrona BoIS, 0 for Varbergs BoIS FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jul 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Landskrona BoIS trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Varbergs BoIS FC trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 57% versus Varbergs BoIS FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 57% | Varbergs BoIS FC 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.34 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.970 / defence 1.079 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.019 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.149. Data: 49 Landskrona BoIS games / 19 Varbergs BoIS FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 38% | Draw 28% | Varbergs BoIS FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Varbergs BoIS FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Landskrona BoIS 40% | Varbergs BoIS FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Landskrona Idrottsplats • Kick-off: Monday 26 Aug 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 38% | Draw 28% | Varbergs BoIS FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Landskrona BoIS 1.34 / Varbergs BoIS FC 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Landskrona BoIS attack 0.970 / def 1.079 | Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.019 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Landskrona BoIS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Landskrona BoIS xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC kick off?
Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 26 August 2024 at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What was the final score in Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Landskrona BoIS 1 - 4 Varbergs BoIS FC.
Where is Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC being played?
The match is being played at Landskrona Idrottsplats.
What competition is Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC part of?
Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our statistical model gives Landskrona BoIS a 38% chance of winning, Varbergs BoIS FC a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Landskrona BoIS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Landskrona BoIS and Varbergs BoIS FC will score (BTTS).
Will Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Varbergs BoIS FC?
Record (1 meetings): Landskrona BoIS 0W | Draws 1 | Varbergs BoIS FC 0W.
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Varbergs BoIS FC in?
Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Varbergs BoIS FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Landskrona BoIS's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Varbergs BoIS FC's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Varbergs BoIS FC's attack versus Landskrona BoIS's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Landskrona BoIS Win
38%
2.63
28%
3.62
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Landskrona BoIS xG
Total xG
2.60
1.26
Varbergs BoIS FC xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
9%
11.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Landskrona BoIS and Varbergs BoIS FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Landskrona BoIS and 1.26 for Varbergs BoIS FC, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Landskrona BoIS have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 22W 11D 16L record — D-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Landskrona BoIS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Varbergs BoIS FC's form line: 9W 10D 30L from 49 games, 0.76 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W. The sample for Varbergs BoIS FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Landskrona BoIS are the form team by 0.81 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Varbergs BoIS FC.
Venue Form
On home soil, Landskrona BoIS have posted 1.75 PPG from 24 outings (12W 6D 6L).
On the road, Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 4W 4D 16L from 24 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Landskrona BoIS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Landskrona BoIS are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Varbergs BoIS FC are on 1.06 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Landskrona BoIS
Blended
Varbergs BoIS FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Landskrona BoIS and Varbergs BoIS FC in coming into this match?
Landskrona BoIS have gone 22W 11D 16L in their last 49 games (1.57 PPG), while Varbergs BoIS FC have gone 9W 10D 30L in their last 49 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Landskrona BoIS at home or Varbergs BoIS FC away?
Landskrona BoIS's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Landskrona BoIS at home: 1.75 PPG; Varbergs BoIS FC away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Landskrona BoIS have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Aug 2024, when Varbergs BoIS FC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Landskrona BoIS's record when hosting Varbergs BoIS FC specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Landskrona BoIS
1
Draws
2
Varbergs BoIS FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Landskrona BoIS and Varbergs BoIS FC?
From 5 meetings on record, Landskrona BoIS have won 2, Varbergs BoIS FC have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Landskrona BoIS and Varbergs BoIS FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Varbergs BoIS FC 2-3 Landskrona BoIS.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Varbergs BoIS FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Landskrona BoIS 54%, Varbergs BoIS FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Landskrona BoIS) and 58% (Varbergs BoIS FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Varbergs BoIS FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Landskrona BoIS home games / Varbergs BoIS FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Landskrona BoIS play Varbergs BoIS FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Landskrona BoIS's recent matches and 50% of Varbergs BoIS FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Landskrona BoIS vs Varbergs BoIS FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Landskrona BoIS's matches and 58% of Varbergs BoIS FC's.
Do Landskrona BoIS and Varbergs BoIS FC tend to score early?
Landskrona BoIS have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Varbergs BoIS FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Varbergs BoIS FC run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Landskrona BoIS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Varbergs BoIS FC beat Landskrona BoIS 1-4 at Landskrona Idrottsplats, Regular Season - 20, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Landskrona BoIS 1.34 xG and Varbergs BoIS FC 1.26 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Varbergs BoIS FC outscored their 1.26 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Landskrona BoIS attack 0.97 / defence 1.08 against Varbergs BoIS FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Landskrona BoIS 38% | Draw 28% | Varbergs BoIS FC 34%, with Landskrona BoIS to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Varbergs BoIS FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Landskrona BoIS 57%, Varbergs BoIS FC 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Varbergs BoIS FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Landskrona BoIS arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.76. Form was overturned, with Varbergs BoIS FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Varbergs BoIS FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.