Landskrona BoIS 1-2 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 46%, yet in-form Falkenbergs FF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Landskrona BoIS vs Falkenbergs FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Falkenbergs FF make the trip to Landskrona Idrottsplats to face Landskrona BoIS in Superettan (matchday 2). The match kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.

Form

Landskrona BoIS (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Landskrona BoIS have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Falkenbergs FF's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Falkenbergs FF away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Falkenbergs FF arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Landskrona BoIS's last 10 home games and Falkenbergs FF's last 10 away games) — Landskrona BoIS have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Falkenbergs FF in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Landskrona BoIS, 2 for Falkenbergs FF and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 27 Jul 2025, ended Landskrona BoIS 1–1 Falkenbergs FF — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Landskrona BoIS — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Falkenbergs FF — key trading statistics (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 87% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Landskrona BoIS 60% versus Falkenbergs FF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Landskrona BoIS 60% | Falkenbergs FF 63%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Landskrona BoIS 1.61 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Landskrona BoIS attack 1.006 / defence 1.036 | Falkenbergs FF attack 1.032 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.584 / away 1.137. Data: built from Landskrona BoIS's last 31 games and Falkenbergs FF's last 31. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Landskrona BoIS 46% | Draw 26% | Falkenbergs FF 28%. Fair-value odds: Landskrona BoIS 2.18 | Draw 3.80 | Falkenbergs FF 3.58. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Falkenbergs FF (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Landskrona BoIS's last 10 home games and Falkenbergs FF's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Landskrona BoIS 60% (last 10 home games) | Falkenbergs FF 70% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Landskrona BoIS 31 games, Falkenbergs FF 31) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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