Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 Osters IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osters IF at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadsparksvallen plays host to Jonkopings Sodra versus Osters IF in Superettan, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Tuesday 6 September 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Jonkopings Sodra have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra at Stadsparksvallen this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osters IF's overall Superettan record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Osters IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osters IF away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Jonkopings Sodra, 1.70 for Osters IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Jonkopings Sodra have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Osters IF in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Jonkopings Sodra lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 May 2022, ended 0–2 with Osters IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Jonkopings Sodra goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Osters IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 57% versus Osters IF 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 49% | Osters IF 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 0.97 xG and Osters IF 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.919 / defence 1.343 | Osters IF attack 1.032 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.372. Osters IF's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Jonkopings Sodra games / 51 Osters IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 17% | Draw 25% | Osters IF 58%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 5.88 | Draw 4.00 | Osters IF 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Osters IF (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Osters IF as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.87 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jonkopings Sodra 60% | Osters IF 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Sep 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 17% | Draw 25% | Osters IF 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 54% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 0.97 / Osters IF 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.919 / def 1.343 | Osters IF attack 1.032 / def 0.770 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Osters IF (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Osters IF xG
54%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 6 September 2022 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF?
Jonkopings Sodra 2 - 1 Osters IF.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 17% chance of winning, Osters IF a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Osters IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF?
Record (3 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 1W | Draws 0 | Osters IF 2W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Osters IF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra's attack at 0.92x the league average against Osters IF's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Osters IF's attack (1.03x) against Jonkopings Sodra's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osters IF Win
17%
5.76
25%
4.01
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.87
1.90
Osters IF xG
5.76
17%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
15%
6.70
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
3%
38.59
22%
4.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.1 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.90 for Osters IF, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jonkopings Sodra's recent record stands at 15W 14D 22L from 51 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osters IF, meanwhile, have gone 22W 17D 12L across 51 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-D-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Osters IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Osters IF by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jonkopings Sodra heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jonkopings Sodra have managed 9W 6D 10L from 25 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osters IF's away record stands at 8W 10D 7L across 25 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Osters IF are on 1.35 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Osters IF in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
Osters IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 15W 14D 22L in their last 51 games (1.16 PPG), while Osters IF have gone 22W 17D 12L in their last 51 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Osters IF away?
Osters IF's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.32 PPG; Osters IF away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Jonkopings Sodra or Osters IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jonkopings Sodra have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Osters IF in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 July 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Osters IF go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Osters IF won 4-0 on 29 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Osters IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jonkopings Sodra
0
Draws
4
Osters IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF?
From 6 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, Osters IF have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF last play each other?
They last met on 29 July 2023, when Osters IF 4-0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF?
Osters IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Osters IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 56%, Osters IF 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 40% (Osters IF).
On the defensive side: Osters IF in 32%; Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 36% of games; Osters IF in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Osters IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Osters IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent matches and 52% of Osters IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Osters IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent games and 40% of Osters IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Osters IF tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Osters IF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jonkopings Sodra defy the odds to beat Osters IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Osters IF 2-1 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 0.97 xG and Osters IF 1.90 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Jonkopings Sodra beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osters IF landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.92 / defence 1.34 against Osters IF attack 1.03 / defence 0.77, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 17% | Draw 25% | Osters IF 58%, with Osters IF to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Jonkopings Sodra win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 49%, Osters IF 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Osters IF's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Osters IF arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Jonkopings Sodra winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Osters IF (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.