Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 Norrby IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jonkopings Sodra at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 28 as Jonkopings Sodra welcome Norrby IF to Stadsparksvallen. Kick-off is set for Monday 24 October 2022 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Superettan games this season, Jonkopings Sodra have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jonkopings Sodra have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadsparksvallen — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Norrby IF stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Norrby IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Norrby IF's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Jonkopings Sodra carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jonkopings Sodra register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Norrby IF in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Jonkopings Sodra, 2 for Norrby IF and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Jul 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Jonkopings Sodra trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Norrby IF trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 58% versus Norrby IF 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 49% | Norrby IF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.79 xG and Norrby IF 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.910 / defence 1.227 | Norrby IF attack 0.956 / defence 1.408. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.272. Norrby IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.408 — this is suppressing Jonkopings Sodra's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 57 Jonkopings Sodra games / 57 Norrby IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 44% | Draw 26% | Norrby IF 31%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Norrby IF 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
Norrby IF lead the H2H ledger, but Jonkopings Sodra carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jonkopings Sodra at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jonkopings Sodra offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jonkopings Sodra 60% | Norrby IF 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Monday 24 Oct 2022, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 44% | Draw 26% | Norrby IF 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 66% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.79 / Norrby IF 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.910 / def 1.227 | Norrby IF attack 0.956 / def 1.408 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Jonkopings Sodra (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Norrby IF xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 24 October 2022 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF?
Jonkopings Sodra 2 - 1 Norrby IF.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 44% chance of winning, Norrby IF a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jonkopings Sodra the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF?
Record (3 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 0W | Draws 1 | Norrby IF 2W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. Norrby IF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra's attack at 0.91x the league average against Norrby IF's defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Norrby IF's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jonkopings Sodra Win
44%
2.30
26%
3.92
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
3.28
1.49
Norrby IF xG
2.30
44%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.93
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
17%
5.99
Win to Nil
10%
10.22
5%
19.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.4 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.49 for Norrby IF, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jonkopings Sodra's recent record stands at 18W 16D 23L from 57 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Norrby IF, meanwhile, have gone 20W 16D 21L across 57 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Norrby IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jonkopings Sodra on 1.23 PPG, Norrby IF on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jonkopings Sodra have managed 10W 7D 11L from 28 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Norrby IF's away record stands at 9W 6D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.18 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Norrby IF are on 1.25 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
Norrby IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 18W 16D 23L in their last 57 games (1.23 PPG), while Norrby IF have gone 20W 16D 21L in their last 57 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or Norrby IF away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.32 PPG; Norrby IF away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jonkopings Sodra's record when hosting Norrby IF specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Jonkopings Sodra
1
Draws
2
Norrby IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF?
From 4 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 1, Norrby IF have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF last play each other?
They last met on 24 October 2022, when Jonkopings Sodra 2-1 Norrby IF.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF?
Norrby IF have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Norrby IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 61%, Norrby IF 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 57% (Norrby IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / Norrby IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play Norrby IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Jonkopings Sodra's games and 64% of Norrby IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs Norrby IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Jonkopings Sodra's matches and 57% of Norrby IF's.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and Norrby IF tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Norrby IF in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jonkopings Sodra edge out Norrby IF 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra beat Norrby IF 2-1 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 28, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.79 xG and Norrby IF 1.49 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.91 / defence 1.23 against Norrby IF attack 0.96 / defence 1.41, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 44% | Draw 26% | Norrby IF 31%, with Jonkopings Sodra to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 49%, Norrby IF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Norrby IF's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jonkopings Sodra 1.23 PPG, Norrby IF 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jonkopings Sodra win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.