Jonkopings Sodra 1-2 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jonkopings Sodra vs IF Brommapojkarna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jonkopings Sodra host IF Brommapojkarna at Stadsparksvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jonkopings Sodra stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jonkopings Sodra have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadsparksvallen — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Superettan games this season, IF Brommapojkarna have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Superettan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. IF Brommapojkarna are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jonkopings Sodra register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, IF Brommapojkarna 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with IF Brommapojkarna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jonkopings Sodra in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jonkopings Sodra 65% and IF Brommapojkarna 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 56% | IF Brommapojkarna 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.41 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.958 / defence 1.309 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.004 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.308. Data: 53 Jonkopings Sodra games / 23 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 31% | Draw 25% | IF Brommapojkarna 44%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | IF Brommapojkarna 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.72) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Brommapojkarna are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Jonkopings Sodra 60% | IF Brommapojkarna 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 31% | Draw 25% | IF Brommapojkarna 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 63% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.41 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.958 / def 1.309 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.004 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.72
IF Brommapojkarna xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Jonkopings Sodra 1 - 2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 31% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 44% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (1 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 0W | Draws 0 | IF Brommapojkarna 1W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and IF Brommapojkarna in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra's attack at 0.96x the league average against IF Brommapojkarna's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
31%
3.23
25%
4.03
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
7.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
3.13
1.72
IF Brommapojkarna xG
3.23
31%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
18%
5.57
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
6%
18.01
11%
9.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.6 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 7.5 | 6.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.72 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jonkopings Sodra's recent record stands at 7W 6D 10L from 23 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Brommapojkarna, meanwhile, have gone 14W 5D 4L across 23 games — 2.04 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours IF Brommapojkarna by 0.87 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jonkopings Sodra heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jonkopings Sodra have managed 4W 1D 6L from 11 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record stands at 4W 3D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.04 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of IF Brommapojkarna's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 2.17 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jonkopings Sodra have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; IF Brommapojkarna in 70%.
Last 23 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 7W 6D 10L in their last 23 games (1.17 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 14W 5D 4L in their last 23 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
IF Brommapojkarna's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.18 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Jonkopings Sodra
0
Draws
2
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 2 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2022, when Jonkopings Sodra 1-2 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Brommapojkarna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 64%, IF Brommapojkarna 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 73% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 46% (IF Brommapojkarna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play IF Brommapojkarna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Jonkopings Sodra's games and 64% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Jonkopings Sodra's matches and 46% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as IF Brommapojkarna edge out Jonkopings Sodra 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna beat Jonkopings Sodra 1-2 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 24, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.41 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.72 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.96 / defence 1.31 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.00 / defence 1.03, drawn from 53/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 31% | Draw 25% | IF Brommapojkarna 44%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 56%, IF Brommapojkarna 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Brommapojkarna arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.