Jonkopings Sodra 1-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jonkopings Sodra vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jonkopings Sodra host GIF Sundsvall at Stadsparksvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 14 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jonkopings Sodra — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadsparksvallen this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Jonkopings Sodra are significantly better at Stadsparksvallen than their overall form suggests.
Across all Superettan games this season, GIF Sundsvall have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. GIF Sundsvall are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Jonkopings Sodra, 0 for GIF Sundsvall and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2021, ended 2–1 with Jonkopings Sodra winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jonkopings Sodra in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
GIF Sundsvall in-play and half-time data (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jonkopings Sodra 48% versus GIF Sundsvall 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jonkopings Sodra 48% | GIF Sundsvall 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jonkopings Sodra 1.04 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.896 / defence 1.062 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.941 / defence 1.067. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.123. Data: 23 Jonkopings Sodra games / 23 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 33% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 37%. Fair-value odds: Jonkopings Sodra 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | GIF Sundsvall 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, GIF Sundsvall are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jonkopings Sodra 50% | GIF Sundsvall 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jonkopings Sodra vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadsparksvallen • Kick-off: Thursday 14 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jonkopings Sodra 33% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Jonkopings Sodra 1.04 / GIF Sundsvall 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.896 / def 1.062 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.941 / def 1.067 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.123 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Expected Goals
1.12
GIF Sundsvall xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jonkopings Sodra vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Jonkopings Sodra vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 14 October 2021 at Stadsparksvallen.
What was the final score in Jonkopings Sodra vs GIF Sundsvall?
Jonkopings Sodra 1 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Jonkopings Sodra vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Stadsparksvallen.
What competition is Jonkopings Sodra vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Jonkopings Sodra vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Jonkopings Sodra vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Jonkopings Sodra a 33% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jonkopings Sodra vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Jonkopings Sodra and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Jonkopings Sodra vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (1 meetings): Jonkopings Sodra 1W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 0W.
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and GIF Sundsvall in?
Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jonkopings Sodra's attack at 0.90x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Jonkopings Sodra's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
33%
3.00
29%
3.40
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
Jonkopings Sodra xG
Total xG
2.17
1.12
GIF Sundsvall xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.9 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jonkopings Sodra vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Jonkopings Sodra and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for Jonkopings Sodra and 1.12 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Jonkopings Sodra vs GIF Sundsvall?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jonkopings Sodra come into this having played 23 games, going 9W 5D 9L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GIF Sundsvall sit at 1.87 PPG from 23 outings (13W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Jonkopings Sodra — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jonkopings Sodra's home form reads 6W 3D 2L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Jonkopings Sodra are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, GIF Sundsvall have taken 1.55 points per game from 11 outings (5W 2D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Jonkopings Sodra are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.52 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jonkopings Sodra and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Jonkopings Sodra have gone 9W 5D 9L in their last 23 games (1.39 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 13W 4D 6L in their last 23 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jonkopings Sodra at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Jonkopings Sodra's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jonkopings Sodra at home: 1.91 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Jonkopings Sodra or GIF Sundsvall been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jonkopings Sodra have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, GIF Sundsvall in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jonkopings Sodra and GIF Sundsvall runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jonkopings Sodra's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Jonkopings Sodra
1
Draws
1
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jonkopings Sodra and GIF Sundsvall?
From 4 meetings on record, Jonkopings Sodra have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jonkopings Sodra and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2023, when GIF Sundsvall 3-2 Jonkopings Sodra.
Who has won more matches between Jonkopings Sodra and GIF Sundsvall?
Jonkopings Sodra have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jonkopings Sodra 54%, GIF Sundsvall 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Jonkopings Sodra) and 36% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Jonkopings Sodra have failed to score in 36% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jonkopings Sodra home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jonkopings Sodra play GIF Sundsvall?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent matches and 54% of GIF Sundsvall's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jonkopings Sodra vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Jonkopings Sodra's recent games and 36% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jonkopings Sodra and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Jonkopings Sodra have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jonkopings Sodra and GIF Sundsvall share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jonkopings Sodra and GIF Sundsvall finished level at 1-1 at Stadsparksvallen, Regular Season - 18, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jonkopings Sodra 1.04 xG and GIF Sundsvall 1.12 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.90 / defence 1.06 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.94 / defence 1.07, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jonkopings Sodra 33% | Draw 29% | GIF Sundsvall 37%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jonkopings Sodra 48%, GIF Sundsvall 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, GIF Sundsvall arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.39. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.