IK brage 0-1 Trelleborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Trelleborg at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Trelleborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IK brage and Trelleborg meet at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 24 July 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
IK brage's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IK brage have posted 1W 1D 3L at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Trelleborg have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Trelleborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Trelleborg away from home this season: 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for IK brage against 1.50 for Trelleborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
IK brage half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Trelleborg half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IK brage 50% and Trelleborg 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IK brage 42% | Trelleborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.19 xG and Trelleborg 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.811 / defence 1.214 | Trelleborg attack 1.156 / defence 1.539. League average goals — home 0.955 / away 1.144. Trelleborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.539 — this is suppressing IK brage's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 IK brage games / 12 Trelleborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 28% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 47%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Trelleborg 2.13. Trelleborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Trelleborg at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Trelleborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: IK brage 40% | Trelleborg 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Trelleborg | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Jul 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 28% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 56% | xG IK brage 1.19 / Trelleborg 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.811 / def 1.214 | Trelleborg attack 1.156 / def 1.539 | league avg home 0.955 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Trelleborg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Trelleborg xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Trelleborg kick off?
IK brage vs Trelleborg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 24 July 2021 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Trelleborg?
IK brage 0 - 1 Trelleborg.
Where is IK brage vs Trelleborg being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Trelleborg part of?
IK brage vs Trelleborg is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Trelleborg?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 28% chance of winning, Trelleborg a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Trelleborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Trelleborg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both IK brage and Trelleborg will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Trelleborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Trelleborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IK brage and Trelleborg in?
IK brage (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Trelleborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IK brage's attack at 0.81x the league average against Trelleborg's defence at 1.54x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Trelleborg's attack (1.16x) against IK brage's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.61.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Trelleborg Win
28%
3.53
25%
4.05
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.80
1.61
Trelleborg xG
3.53
28%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
6%
17.60
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Trelleborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are IK brage and Trelleborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for IK brage and 1.61 for Trelleborg, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Trelleborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 12 outings, IK brage have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 3D 6L record — D-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Trelleborg's form line: 5W 4D 3L from 12 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Trelleborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Trelleborg are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IK brage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IK brage have posted 0.80 PPG from 5 outings (1W 1D 3L).
On the road, Trelleborg have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Trelleborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IK brage are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Trelleborg are on 1.50 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Trelleborg in 75%.
Last 12 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Trelleborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Trelleborg in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while Trelleborg have gone 5W 4D 3L in their last 12 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Trelleborg away?
Trelleborg's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 0.80 PPG; Trelleborg away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 31 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Notable Numbers
IK brage have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IK brage have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Trelleborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IK brage
2
Draws
5
Trelleborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Trelleborg?
From 10 meetings on record, IK brage have won 3, Trelleborg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Trelleborg last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2025, when IK brage 2-1 Trelleborg.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Trelleborg?
Trelleborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Trelleborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IK brage 40%, Trelleborg 80% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (IK brage) and 60% (Trelleborg).
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; IK brage have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Trelleborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Trelleborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of IK brage's games and 80% of Trelleborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IK brage vs Trelleborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of IK brage's recent games and 60% of Trelleborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Trelleborg tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Trelleborg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Trelleborg edge out IK brage 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Trelleborg beat IK brage 0-1 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 13, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.19 xG and Trelleborg 1.61 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. IK brage fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.81 / defence 1.21 against Trelleborg attack 1.16 / defence 1.54, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 28% | Draw 25% | Trelleborg 47%, with Trelleborg to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 42%, Trelleborg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Trelleborg's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Trelleborg arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Trelleborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.