IK brage 1-4 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IK brage at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this IK brage vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IK brage host Gais at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IK brage — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Superettan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IK brage, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IK brage's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 4L across 9 games at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen this term (1.22 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gais stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, IK brage have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for IK brage, 0 for Gais and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2021, ended 2–0 with IK brage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
IK brage in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Gais in-play and half-time data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IK brage 58% versus Gais 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (IK brage 53% | Gais 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IK brage 1.26 xG and Gais 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IK brage attack 0.958 / defence 1.317 | Gais attack 0.850 / defence 1.176. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.090. Data: 20 IK brage games / 19 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IK brage 37% | Draw 27% | Gais 36%. Fair-value odds: IK brage 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Gais 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IK brage as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IK brage offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: IK brage 44% | Gais 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IK brage vs Gais | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IK brage 37% | Draw 27% | Gais 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG IK brage 1.26 / Gais 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: IK brage attack 0.958 / def 1.317 | Gais attack 0.850 / def 1.176 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: IK brage (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
IK brage xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Gais xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IK brage vs Gais kick off?
IK brage vs Gais kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What was the final score in IK brage vs Gais?
IK brage 1 - 4 Gais.
Where is IK brage vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen.
What competition is IK brage vs Gais part of?
IK brage vs Gais is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IK brage vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives IK brage a 37% chance of winning, Gais a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IK brage the favourite.
Will both teams score in IK brage vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IK brage and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will IK brage vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Gais?
Record (1 meetings): IK brage 1W | Draws 0 | Gais 0W.
What form are IK brage and Gais in?
IK brage (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Gais (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IK brage's attack rating (0.96) and Gais's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus IK brage's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IK brage Win
37%
2.68
27%
3.68
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
IK brage xG
Total xG
2.48
1.22
Gais xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
11%
9.07
10%
9.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IK brage vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are IK brage and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for IK brage and 1.22 for Gais, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for IK brage vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IK brage come into this having played 19 games, going 5W 5D 9L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for IK brage is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gais sit at 1.05 PPG from 19 outings (6W 2D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IK brage on 1.05 PPG, Gais on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
IK brage's home form reads 3W 2D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Gais have taken 0.78 points per game from 9 outings (2W 1D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IK brage come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IK brage are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 0.95 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 19 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IK brage
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IK brage and Gais in coming into this match?
IK brage have gone 5W 5D 9L in their last 19 games (1.05 PPG), while Gais have gone 6W 2D 11L in their last 19 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IK brage at home or Gais away?
IK brage's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IK brage at home: 1.22 PPG; Gais away: 0.78 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Gais go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Aug 2023, when Gais won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IK brage's record when hosting Gais specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
IK brage
0
Draws
3
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IK brage and Gais?
From 4 meetings on record, IK brage have won 1, Gais have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IK brage and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 12 August 2023, when IK brage 0-4 Gais.
Who has won more matches between IK brage and Gais?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IK brage are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Gais see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — IK brage 44% BTTS, Gais 22%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 44% for IK brage and 22% for Gais.
On the defensive side: IK brage keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IK brage have failed to score in 33% of games; Gais in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IK brage home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IK brage play Gais?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of IK brage's recent matches and 22% of Gais's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IK brage vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of IK brage's recent games and 22% of Gais's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IK brage and Gais tend to score early?
IK brage have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gais in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Gais run riot with a 1-4 hammering of IK brage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat IK brage 1-4 at Borlänge Energi Arena Domnarvsvallen, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IK brage 1.26 xG and Gais 1.22 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Gais outscored their 1.22 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IK brage attack 0.96 / defence 1.32 against Gais attack 0.85 / defence 1.18, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IK brage 37% | Draw 27% | Gais 36%, with IK brage to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IK brage 53%, Gais 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IK brage's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Gais's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IK brage 1.05 PPG, Gais 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. IK brage (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gais (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.