IFK Norrkoping 1-3 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs Landskrona BoIS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
IFK Norrkoping and Landskrona BoIS meet at Norrkopings Idrottspark in Superettan, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
IFK Norrkoping's overall Superettan record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. IFK Norrkoping haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
IFK Norrkoping's home record at Norrkopings Idrottspark: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Superettan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Landskrona BoIS (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
IFK Norrkoping goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Landskrona BoIS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — IFK Norrkoping 67% and Landskrona BoIS 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 60% | Landskrona BoIS 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 2.17 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.363 / defence 1.015 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.839 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.669 / away 1.163. IFK Norrkoping carry an above-average attack strength of 1.363 — their λ of 2.17 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 3 IFK Norrkoping games / 33 Landskrona BoIS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 64% | Draw 20% | Landskrona BoIS 16%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 1.56 | Draw 5.00 | Landskrona BoIS 6.25. The model has a clear lean to IFK Norrkoping (64%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Form averages suggest only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 61% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.
On the Poisson output, IFK Norrkoping are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: IFK Norrkoping 50% | Landskrona BoIS 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Landskrona BoIS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Norrkopings Idrottspark • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Apr 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 64% | Draw 20% | Landskrona BoIS 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 56% | xG IFK Norrkoping 2.17 / Landskrona BoIS 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.363 / def 1.015 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.839 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.669 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Landskrona BoIS xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Landskrona BoIS kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Landskrona BoIS kicked off at 17:00 on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at Norrkopings Idrottspark.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Landskrona BoIS?
IFK Norrkoping 1 - 3 Landskrona BoIS.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Landskrona BoIS being played?
The match is being played at Norrkopings Idrottspark.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Landskrona BoIS part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Landskrona BoIS is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 64% chance of winning, Landskrona BoIS a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Landskrona BoIS will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Landskrona BoIS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Landskrona BoIS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Landskrona BoIS in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Landskrona BoIS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from IFK Norrkoping's attack rating (1.36) and Landskrona BoIS's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 2.17 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Landskrona BoIS's attack (0.84x) against IFK Norrkoping's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 3/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
64%
1.56
20%
5.10
16%
6.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
3.16
0.99
Landskrona BoIS xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.10
20%
Draw
6.19
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
11%
8.76
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
2%
54.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Landskrona BoIS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Landskrona BoIS expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 0.99 for Landskrona BoIS, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Landskrona BoIS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 30 outings, IFK Norrkoping have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 9W 7D 14L record — L-D-W-W-L across the most recent five. IFK Norrkoping haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Landskrona BoIS's form line: 11W 8D 11L from 30 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for IFK Norrkoping against 1.37 for Landskrona BoIS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IFK Norrkoping have posted 1.33 PPG from 15 outings (6W 2D 7L).
On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 5W 3D 7L from 15 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game recently; Landskrona BoIS are on 1.30 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Landskrona BoIS in 60%.
Last 30 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Pre-Season
Landskrona BoIS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Landskrona BoIS in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 9W 7D 14L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while Landskrona BoIS have gone 11W 8D 11L in their last 30 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Landskrona BoIS away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.33 PPG; Landskrona BoIS away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since April 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 28 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
IFK Norrkoping
0
Draws
1
Landskrona BoIS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Landskrona BoIS?
From 2 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 1, Landskrona BoIS have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Landskrona BoIS last play each other?
They last met on 28 July 2026, when Landskrona BoIS 0-1 IFK Norrkoping.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Landskrona BoIS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 53%, Landskrona BoIS 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (IFK Norrkoping) and 53% (Landskrona BoIS).
On the defensive side: Landskrona BoIS in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Landskrona BoIS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play Landskrona BoIS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of IFK Norrkoping's recent matches and 53% of Landskrona BoIS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs Landskrona BoIS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 53% of Landskrona BoIS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Landskrona BoIS tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Landskrona BoIS in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Landskrona BoIS cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over IFK Norrkoping.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Landskrona BoIS beat IFK Norrkoping 1-3 at Norrkopings Idrottspark, Regular Season - 4, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 2.17 xG and Landskrona BoIS 0.99 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. IFK Norrkoping fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Landskrona BoIS outscored their 0.99 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.36 / defence 1.01 against Landskrona BoIS attack 0.84 / defence 0.95, drawn from 3/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 64% | Draw 20% | Landskrona BoIS 16%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Landskrona BoIS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 60%, Landskrona BoIS 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Landskrona BoIS's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.13 PPG, Landskrona BoIS 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Landskrona BoIS win broke the near-deadlock. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Landskrona BoIS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.