Helsingborg 3-0 Jonkopings Sodra – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helsingborg at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Superettan clash, Regular Season - 21 as Helsingborg welcome Jonkopings Sodra to Olympia. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 21 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helsingborg stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Superettan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Olympia this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Jonkopings Sodra — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jonkopings Sodra, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jonkopings Sodra away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Helsingborg 1.80 PPG, Jonkopings Sodra 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Helsingborg, 0 for Jonkopings Sodra and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Helsingborg in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Jonkopings Sodra in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helsingborg 33% versus Jonkopings Sodra 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helsingborg 43% | Jonkopings Sodra 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helsingborg 1.37 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helsingborg attack 1.004 / defence 1.044 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.776 / defence 1.281. League average goals — home 1.069 / away 1.147. Jonkopings Sodra bring a strong defensive rating of 1.281 — this is suppressing Helsingborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Helsingborg games / 19 Jonkopings Sodra games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helsingborg 47% | Draw 27% | Jonkopings Sodra 25%. Fair-value odds: Helsingborg 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Jonkopings Sodra 4.00. Helsingborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helsingborg at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helsingborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Helsingborg 40% | Jonkopings Sodra 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Olympia • Kick-off: Tuesday 21 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helsingborg 47% | Draw 27% | Jonkopings Sodra 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Helsingborg 1.37 / Jonkopings Sodra 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Helsingborg attack 1.004 / def 1.044 | Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.776 / def 1.281 | league avg home 1.069 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Helsingborg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Helsingborg xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Jonkopings Sodra xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra kick off?
Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 21 September 2021 at Olympia.
What was the final score in Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Helsingborg 3 - 0 Jonkopings Sodra.
Where is Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra being played?
The match is being played at Olympia.
What competition is Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra part of?
Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our statistical model gives Helsingborg a 47% chance of winning, Jonkopings Sodra a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Helsingborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra will score (BTTS).
Will Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra?
Record (1 meetings): Helsingborg 0W | Draws 1 | Jonkopings Sodra 0W.
What form are Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra in?
Helsingborg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Jonkopings Sodra (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Helsingborg's attack at 1.00x the league average against Jonkopings Sodra's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.37 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jonkopings Sodra's attack versus Helsingborg's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Helsingborg Win
47%
2.12
27%
3.64
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Helsingborg xG
Total xG
2.30
0.93
Jonkopings Sodra xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
6%
15.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.8 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Helsingborg and 0.93 for Jonkopings Sodra, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Helsingborg's recent record stands at 11W 6D 4L from 21 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jonkopings Sodra, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 9L across 21 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Jonkopings Sodra is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Helsingborg by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jonkopings Sodra heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Helsingborg have managed 5W 2D 3L from 10 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jonkopings Sodra's away record stands at 3W 1D 6L across 10 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.43 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jonkopings Sodra's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Helsingborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Helsingborg are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Jonkopings Sodra are on 1.33 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helsingborg
Blended
Jonkopings Sodra
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra in coming into this match?
Helsingborg have gone 11W 6D 4L in their last 21 games (1.86 PPG), while Jonkopings Sodra have gone 9W 3D 9L in their last 21 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helsingborg at home or Jonkopings Sodra away?
Helsingborg's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helsingborg at home: 1.70 PPG; Jonkopings Sodra away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Helsingborg or Jonkopings Sodra been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helsingborg have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Jonkopings Sodra in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Sep 2021, when Helsingborg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helsingborg's record when hosting Jonkopings Sodra specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Helsingborg
3
Draws
0
Jonkopings Sodra
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra?
From 4 meetings on record, Helsingborg have won 1, Jonkopings Sodra have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra last play each other?
They last met on 19 August 2023, when Jonkopings Sodra 2-2 Helsingborg.
Who has won more matches between Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Jonkopings Sodra are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helsingborg 40%, Jonkopings Sodra 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Helsingborg) and 40% (Jonkopings Sodra).
On the defensive side: Helsingborg keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Helsingborg have failed to score in 30% of games; Jonkopings Sodra in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helsingborg home games / Jonkopings Sodra away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helsingborg play Jonkopings Sodra?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Helsingborg's recent matches and 40% of Jonkopings Sodra's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helsingborg vs Jonkopings Sodra usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Helsingborg's recent games and 40% of Jonkopings Sodra's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Helsingborg and Jonkopings Sodra tend to score early?
Helsingborg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Jonkopings Sodra in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Helsingborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jonkopings Sodra.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat Jonkopings Sodra 3-0 at Olympia, Regular Season - 21, in the Superettan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helsingborg 1.37 xG and Jonkopings Sodra 0.93 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Helsingborg beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jonkopings Sodra landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helsingborg attack 1.00 / defence 1.04 against Jonkopings Sodra attack 0.78 / defence 1.28, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helsingborg 47% | Draw 27% | Jonkopings Sodra 25%, with Helsingborg to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helsingborg 43%, Jonkopings Sodra 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helsingborg's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Jonkopings Sodra's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Helsingborg arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.43. That form edge translated into the three points. Helsingborg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Jonkopings Sodra (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.