GIF Sundsvall 1-0 Utsikten – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Utsikten at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Utsikten travel to NP3 Arena to take on GIF Sundsvall. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 September 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Superettan matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall at NP3 Arena this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at NP3 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Utsikten — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Utsikten, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Utsikten have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Utsikten are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 1 for Utsikten and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Jun 2023, ended 0–5 with Utsikten winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
GIF Sundsvall in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Utsikten in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 59% versus Utsikten 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 63% | Utsikten 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.12 xG and Utsikten 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.928 / defence 1.328 | Utsikten attack 0.996 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.503 / away 1.197. Data: 21 GIF Sundsvall games / 51 Utsikten games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 25% | Draw 28% | Utsikten 46%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Utsikten 2.17. Utsikten hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Utsikten are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Utsikten offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: GIF Sundsvall 60% | Utsikten 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 25% | Draw 28% | Utsikten 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.12 / Utsikten 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.928 / def 1.328 | Utsikten attack 0.996 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.503 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Utsikten (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Utsikten xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 0 Utsikten.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 25% chance of winning, Utsikten a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Utsikten the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten?
Record (1 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 0W | Draws 0 | Utsikten 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. Utsikten (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates GIF Sundsvall's attack at 0.93x the league average against Utsikten's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Utsikten's attack versus GIF Sundsvall's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Utsikten Win
25%
3.95
28%
3.54
46%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.70
1.58
Utsikten xG
3.95
25%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.15
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
5%
19.22
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.6 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.58 for Utsikten, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 51 games, going 10W 7D 34L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Utsikten sit at 1.63 PPG from 51 outings (24W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Utsikten is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Utsikten carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 7W 3D 15L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Utsikten have taken 1.56 points per game from 25 outings (12W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Utsikten come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.35 conceded per game recently; Utsikten are on 1.59 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Utsikten
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 10W 7D 34L in their last 51 games (0.73 PPG), while Utsikten have gone 24W 11D 16L in their last 51 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Utsikten away?
Utsikten's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 0.96 PPG; Utsikten away: 1.56 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Utsikten been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, Utsikten in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. They last met on 2 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Jun 2023, when Utsikten won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
GIF Sundsvall's record when hosting Utsikten specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
3
Utsikten
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten?
From 6 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Utsikten have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when Utsikten 4-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten?
Utsikten have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Utsikten are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 68%, Utsikten 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (GIF Sundsvall) and 48% (Utsikten). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Utsikten in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Utsikten away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Utsikten?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of GIF Sundsvall's games and 44% of Utsikten's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Utsikten usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of GIF Sundsvall's matches and 48% of Utsikten's.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Utsikten tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Utsikten in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as GIF Sundsvall defy the odds to beat Utsikten 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
GIF Sundsvall beat Utsikten 1-0 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.12 xG and Utsikten 1.58 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Utsikten landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.93 / defence 1.33 against Utsikten attack 1.00 / defence 0.80, drawn from 21/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 25% | Draw 28% | Utsikten 46%, with Utsikten to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a GIF Sundsvall win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 63%, Utsikten 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Utsikten's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Utsikten arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.73. Form was overturned, with GIF Sundsvall winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.24 average — tighter than their form line. Utsikten (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.