GIF Sundsvall 0-0 Sandviken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sandviken make the trip to NP3 Arena to face GIF Sundsvall in Superettan, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
GIF Sundsvall's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
GIF Sundsvall at NP3 Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sandviken (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 Superettan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Sandviken haven't played a Superettan game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.50 for Sandviken. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.85 xG and Sandviken 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.000 / defence 1.197 | Sandviken attack 0.964 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 0.931. Sandviken bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 GIF Sundsvall games / 8 Sandviken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 54% | Draw 25% | Sandviken 21%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Sandviken 4.76. GIF Sundsvall hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is GIF Sundsvall at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 54% | Draw 25% | Sandviken 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.85 / Sandviken 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 1.000 / def 1.197 | Sandviken attack 0.964 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.327 / away 0.931 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sandviken xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 22 May 2024 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken?
GIF Sundsvall 0 - 0 Sandviken.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 54% chance of winning, Sandviken a 21% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Sandviken (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (1.00) and Sandviken's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sandviken's attack (0.96x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 38/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
54%
1.85
25%
3.94
21%
4.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
2.92
1.07
Sandviken xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.87
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
16%
6.34
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
3%
30.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.07 for Sandviken, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 2 games, going 0W 1D 1L for 0.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-L. It's still early in the season for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sandviken sit at 1.50 PPG from 2 outings (1W 0D 1L), a run that reads L-W across their last five. Sandviken haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sandviken carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of GIF Sundsvall — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Sandviken are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
Last 2 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Early Season
Sandviken
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Sandviken have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sandviken have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sandviken won 5-0 on 1 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sandviken — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
GIF Sundsvall
1
Draws
2
Sandviken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken?
From 6 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 3, Sandviken have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Sandviken 5-0 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken?
GIF Sundsvall have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Sandviken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Sandviken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 50% of Sandviken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Sandviken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 50% of Sandviken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sandviken in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at GIF Sundsvall's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 9, as GIF Sundsvall and Sandviken drew 0-0 in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.85 xG and Sandviken 1.07 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. GIF Sundsvall fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Sandviken landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 1.00 / defence 1.20 against Sandviken attack 0.96 / defence 1.39, drawn from 38/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 54% | Draw 25% | Sandviken 21%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 50%, Sandviken 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Sandviken arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. GIF Sundsvall conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Sandviken managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.