GIF Sundsvall 2-1 Landskrona BoIS – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Landskrona BoIS at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as GIF Sundsvall face Landskrona BoIS.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

GIF Sundsvall host Landskrona BoIS at NP3 Arena in Superettan (matchday 8). Kick-off is Monday 18 May 2026 at 18:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, GIF Sundsvall have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, GIF Sundsvall have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — GIF Sundsvall are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Landskrona BoIS — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Landskrona BoIS have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (GIF Sundsvall) versus 1.20 (Landskrona BoIS). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Landskrona BoIS 4, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 30 Aug 2025, ended GIF Sundsvall 1–2 Landskrona BoIS — a Landskrona BoIS win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

GIF Sundsvall trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Landskrona BoIS trading profile (last 62 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 50% versus Landskrona BoIS 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 47% | Landskrona BoIS 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: GIF Sundsvall surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Landskrona BoIS have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.33 xG and Landskrona BoIS 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.988 / defence 1.364 | Landskrona BoIS attack 0.929 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.453. GIF Sundsvall's defence rating of 1.364 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Landskrona BoIS's projected output up. Data: built from GIF Sundsvall's last 37 games and Landskrona BoIS's last 37.

Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 28% | Draw 23% | Landskrona BoIS 50%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 3.61 | Draw 4.39 | Landskrona BoIS 2.02. Landskrona BoIS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.33 / 1.84) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Form (GIF Sundsvall's last 10 home games and Landskrona BoIS's last 10 away games) suggests only ~1.7 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 61% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.

Poisson rates Landskrona BoIS as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Landskrona BoIS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: GIF Sundsvall 60% (last 10 home games) | Landskrona BoIS 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights