Gefle IF 0-3 Vasteras SK FK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasteras SK FK at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs Vasteras SK FK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gefle IF and Vasteras SK FK meet at Gavlevallen in Superettan, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vasteras SK FK (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Superettan outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Vasteras SK FK have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.09 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 0.812 / defence 1.002 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.083 / defence 0.946. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.055. Data: 5 Gefle IF games / 35 Vasteras SK FK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 34% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 37%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Vasteras SK FK 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Vasteras SK FK as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vasteras SK FK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Vasteras SK FK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 34% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Gefle IF 1.09 / Vasteras SK FK 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 0.812 / def 1.002 | Vasteras SK FK attack 1.083 / def 0.946 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Vasteras SK FK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Vasteras SK FK xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Vasteras SK FK kick off?
Gefle IF vs Vasteras SK FK kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Gefle IF 0 - 3 Vasteras SK FK.
Where is Gefle IF vs Vasteras SK FK being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Vasteras SK FK part of?
Gefle IF vs Vasteras SK FK is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 34% chance of winning, Vasteras SK FK a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vasteras SK FK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Gefle IF and Vasteras SK FK will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Vasteras SK FK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Vasteras SK FK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gefle IF and Vasteras SK FK in?
Vasteras SK FK (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Vasteras SK FK away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Gefle IF's attack at 0.81x the league average against Vasteras SK FK's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Vasteras SK FK's attack (1.08x) against Gefle IF's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 5/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasteras SK FK Win
34%
2.93
29%
3.47
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.23
1.15
Vasteras SK FK xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
11%
9.20
12%
8.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Vasteras SK FK expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.15 for Vasteras SK FK, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Vasteras SK FK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Pre-Season
Vasteras SK FK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 July 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Gefle IF
0
Draws
2
Vasteras SK FK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Vasteras SK FK?
From 2 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 0, Vasteras SK FK have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Vasteras SK FK last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2023, when Vasteras SK FK 1-0 Gefle IF.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and Vasteras SK FK?
Vasteras SK FK have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Vasteras SK FK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Vasteras SK FK run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Gefle IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasteras SK FK beat Gefle IF 0-3 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 6, in the Superettan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.09 xG and Vasteras SK FK 1.15 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Gefle IF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Vasteras SK FK outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 0.81 / defence 1.00 against Vasteras SK FK attack 1.08 / defence 0.95, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 34% | Draw 29% | Vasteras SK FK 37%, with Vasteras SK FK to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.