Gefle IF 4-1 Skövde AIK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Skövde AIK at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gefle IF vs Skövde AIK fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Superettan encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Skövde AIK travel to Gavlevallen to take on Gefle IF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 14 May 2023, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Skövde AIK — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Superettan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Skövde AIK away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gefle IF 1.02 xG and Skövde AIK 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gefle IF attack 0.697 / defence 1.183 | Skövde AIK attack 0.754 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.162. Gefle IF's attack strength of 0.697 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Gefle IF games / 36 Skövde AIK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gefle IF 34% | Draw 30% | Skövde AIK 35%. Fair-value odds: Gefle IF 2.94 | Draw 3.33 | Skövde AIK 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Skövde AIK as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Skövde AIK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gefle IF vs Skövde AIK | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Gavlevallen • Kick-off: Sunday 14 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gefle IF 34% | Draw 30% | Skövde AIK 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Gefle IF 1.02 / Skövde AIK 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Gefle IF attack 0.697 / def 1.183 | Skövde AIK attack 0.754 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Skövde AIK (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Gefle IF xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Skövde AIK xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gefle IF vs Skövde AIK kick off?
Gefle IF vs Skövde AIK kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 May 2023 at Gavlevallen.
What was the final score in Gefle IF vs Skövde AIK?
Gefle IF 4 - 1 Skövde AIK.
Where is Gefle IF vs Skövde AIK being played?
The match is being played at Gavlevallen.
What competition is Gefle IF vs Skövde AIK part of?
Gefle IF vs Skövde AIK is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gefle IF vs Skövde AIK?
Our statistical model gives Gefle IF a 34% chance of winning, Skövde AIK a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Skövde AIK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gefle IF vs Skövde AIK?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Gefle IF and Skövde AIK will score (BTTS).
Will Gefle IF vs Skövde AIK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Skövde AIK?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gefle IF and Skövde AIK in?
Skövde AIK (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Skövde AIK away split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Gefle IF's attack rating (0.70) and Skövde AIK's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Skövde AIK's attack versus Gefle IF's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Skövde AIK Win
34%
2.90
30%
3.30
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Gefle IF xG
Total xG
2.06
1.04
Skövde AIK xG
2.90
34%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gefle IF vs Skövde AIK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Gefle IF and Skövde AIK expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Gefle IF and 1.04 for Skövde AIK, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Gefle IF vs Skövde AIK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gefle IF
Pre-Season
Skövde AIK
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gefle IF and Skövde AIK runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Superettan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gefle IF have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 May 2023, when Gefle IF won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gefle IF's record when hosting Skövde AIK specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Gefle IF
0
Draws
1
Skövde AIK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gefle IF and Skövde AIK?
From 4 meetings on record, Gefle IF have won 3, Skövde AIK have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gefle IF and Skövde AIK last play each other?
They last met on 1 September 2024, when Skövde AIK 0-1 Gefle IF.
Who has won more matches between Gefle IF and Skövde AIK?
Gefle IF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gefle IF home games / Skövde AIK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Gefle IF run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Skövde AIK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gefle IF beat Skövde AIK 4-1 at Gavlevallen, Regular Season - 7, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gefle IF 1.02 xG and Skövde AIK 1.04 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Gefle IF beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gefle IF attack 0.70 / defence 1.18 against Skövde AIK attack 0.75 / defence 1.03, drawn from 6/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gefle IF 34% | Draw 30% | Skövde AIK 35%, with Skövde AIK to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Gefle IF win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.