Gais 2-1 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Orgryte IS at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gais vs Orgryte IS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gais and Orgryte IS meet at Gamla Ullevi in Superettan, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 29 September 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gais's overall Superettan record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, Gais have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Orgryte IS have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Superettan outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Superettan this season, Orgryte IS have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Gais against 1.40 for Orgryte IS. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gais lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with Orgryte IS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Gais goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Orgryte IS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gais 33% versus Orgryte IS 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gais 29% | Orgryte IS 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gais 0.88 xG and Orgryte IS 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gais attack 0.712 / defence 1.140 | Orgryte IS attack 0.831 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.137. Gais's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Gais games / 22 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gais 29% | Draw 31% | Orgryte IS 40%. Fair-value odds: Gais 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | Orgryte IS 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Orgryte IS at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Orgryte IS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates are neutral: Gais 40% | Orgryte IS 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gais vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Superettan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Wednesday 29 Sep 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gais 29% | Draw 31% | Orgryte IS 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Gais 0.88 / Orgryte IS 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Gais attack 0.712 / def 1.140 | Orgryte IS attack 0.831 / def 1.180 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: Orgryte IS (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Gais xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Orgryte IS xG
39%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gais vs Orgryte IS kick off?
Gais vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 29 September 2021 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in Gais vs Orgryte IS?
Gais 2 - 1 Orgryte IS.
Where is Gais vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is Gais vs Orgryte IS part of?
Gais vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Superettan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Gais vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives Gais a 29% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Orgryte IS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gais vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Gais and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will Gais vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Orgryte IS?
Record (1 meetings): Gais 0W | Draws 0 | Orgryte IS 1W.
What form are Gais and Orgryte IS in?
Gais (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Orgryte IS (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gais's attack rating (0.71) and Orgryte IS's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Orgryte IS's attack (0.83x) against Gais's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Orgryte IS Win
29%
3.41
31%
3.22
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Gais xG
Total xG
1.96
1.08
Orgryte IS xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
16%
6.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 15.2 | 8.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gais vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Gais and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Gais and 1.08 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Gais vs Orgryte IS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Gais's recent record stands at 7W 3D 11L from 21 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Orgryte IS, meanwhile, have gone 6W 10D 5L across 21 games — 1.33 PPG, with D-W-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Gais against 1.33 for Orgryte IS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Gais have managed 3W 2D 5L from 10 games — 1.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Orgryte IS's away record stands at 3W 4D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Gais are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.19 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Orgryte IS in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Superettan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gais
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gais and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
Gais have gone 7W 3D 11L in their last 21 games (1.14 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 6W 10D 5L in their last 21 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gais at home or Orgryte IS away?
Orgryte IS's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gais at home: 1.10 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Gais have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gais won 4-0 on 3 May 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gais have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Orgryte IS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Gais
0
Draws
2
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gais and Orgryte IS?
From 5 meetings on record, Gais have won 3, Orgryte IS have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Gais and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Gais 4-0 Orgryte IS.
Who has won more matches between Gais and Orgryte IS?
Gais have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gais 40%, Orgryte IS 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 30% for Gais and 40% for Orgryte IS.
On the defensive side: Gais have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gais home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gais play Orgryte IS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Gais's recent matches and 60% of Orgryte IS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gais vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Gais's recent games and 40% of Orgryte IS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gais and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
Gais have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gais defy the odds to beat Orgryte IS 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gais beat Orgryte IS 2-1 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 23, in the Superettan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gais 0.88 xG and Orgryte IS 1.08 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Gais beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gais attack 0.71 / defence 1.14 against Orgryte IS attack 0.83 / defence 1.18, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gais 29% | Draw 31% | Orgryte IS 40%, with Orgryte IS to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Gais win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gais 29%, Orgryte IS 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gais's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gais 1.14 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gais win broke the near-deadlock. Gais (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.